grundar t1_iy3ikfm wrote on November 28, 2022 at 1:59 PM

Reply to comment by avogadros_number in New study finds the influence of climate change on El Niño and La Niña events will be will be obvious and unambiguous within about 8 years, 40 years earlier than previously thought by avogadros_number

> approximately four decades earlier than that previously suggested

It's worth noting that the previous estimate of 2070 was from March 2022 and by one of the same authors (Wenju Cai, the author of the linked article), so this appears to be in large part an incremental refinement of modeling results.

EmeraldGlimmer t1_iy3vp6l wrote on November 28, 2022 at 3:41 PM

Interesting it estimates 2030 +-6, which could be as early as 2024. We potentially have only 1-2 years before this starts, on the early end.