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Aardark235 t1_iw3x8ke wrote

Reply to comment by grundar in Global Carbon Budget 2022 | The remaining carbon budget for a 50 % likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5, 1.7, and 2C has, respectively, reduced to 105 GtC, 200 GtC, and 335 GtC from the beginning of 2023, equivalent to 9, 18, and 30 years, assuming 2022 emissions levels. by silence7

Here is a better comparison of the current policies that will result in a +2.7C gain by the end of the century vs the unrealistic promises that we will almost immediately drop CO2 emissions in half.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/paris-global-climate-change-agreements

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grundar t1_iw4wrq3 wrote

> Here is a better comparison of the current policies

Did you not notice that they're referencing exactly the same analysis that I did in my original comment? They're linking to Climate Action Tracker, just like I did.

So...congratulations on coming full circle and finally agreeing with the references provided in my original comment, I guess.

While you're there, it may be instructive for you to note that while "current policies" result in 2.7C of warming, "current policies" as of 2018 would have resulted in 3.3C of warming, so "current policies" is very much a moving -- improving -- target.

Indeed, it's likely they'll put out a new analysis after COP27. Every previous major iteration has shown that estimated warming has declined -- for "current policies" as well as for scenarios taking into account pledges -- so it will be interesting to see if that continues to be the case after COP27 and if so how much. We'll see.

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Aardark235 t1_iw50tqd wrote

You are a very optimistic person. For the sake of the planet, I hope you are right.

I am old and cynical for many valid reasons.

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