Note that this conjecture is regarding civil wars, not wars where one country invades another to take its territory.

Ceasefires are agreements by which one or more parties to a conflict agree to stop hostilities. Although they usually do not solve the problems underlying a conflict, they are always an important step towards ending civil wars.

But why do parties to a conflict decide to lay down their arms in the first place? And when are they more likely to do so? To answer these questions, researchers from the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zürich, the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) in Norway and Uppsala University in Sweden have created the external pagefirst comprehensive dataset on ceasefires in all civil wars between 1989 and 2020call_made. They examined 2,202 agreements concluded during 109 civil conflicts across 66 countries.

Their study, published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, shows that the reasons for ceasefires in civil wars are more multifaceted than previously thought and that there are a number of conditions that favour them. The authors focus on intra-​, rather than inter-​state wars, as the later were the exception during the period under review.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00220027221128300

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