No-Effort-7730 t1_j8mptt2 wrote
Reply to comment by SaxManSteve in New study shows Acceleration of global sea level rise imminent past 1.8℃ planetary warming by 9273629397759992
Bumping for visibility because that's a dank ass based response.
Gemini884 t1_j8oka7k wrote
Except they're wrong.
​
>The IPCC infamously fails to account for carbon cycle feedbacks and their associated tipping points when setting their own emissions targets.
Then why are climate models used in previous IPCC reports so accurate and have predicted the pace of warming so well? Observed warming tends to track middle-of-the-range estimates from previous IPCC reports.
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2022/02/another-dot-on-the-graphs-part-ii/
You probably should listen to what actual climate scientists say on the matter-
https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1557421984484495362
https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1491134605390352388
https://nitter.kavin.rocks/JoeriRogelj/status/1424743837277294603
https://nitter.kavin.rocks/PFriedling/status/1557705737446592512
https://nitter.kavin.rocks/ClimateAdam/status/1429730044776157185
https://nitter.kavin.rocks/Knutti\_ETH/status/1554473710404485120
https://nitter.kavin.rocks/ClimateOfGavin/status/1556735212083712002#m
There were some models for the recent ipcc report that overestimate future warming and they were included too
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01192-2
There is no evidence for projected warming <3-4C of any tipping points that significantly change the warming trajectory. Read ipcc report and read what climate scientists say instead of speculating:
https://nitter.kavin.rocks/MichaelEMann/status/1495438146905026563
https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1571146283582365697#m
"Some people will look at this and go, ‘well, if we’re going to hit tipping points at 1.5°C, then it’s game over’. But we’re saying they would lock in some really unpleasant impacts for a very long time, but they don’t cause runaway global warming."- Quote from Dr. David Armstrong Mckay, the author of one of recent studies on the subject to Newscientist mag. here are explainers he's written before-
https://climatetippingpoints.info/2019/04/01/climate-tipping-points-fact-check-series-introduction/ (introduction is a bit outdated and there are some estimates that were ruled out in past year's ipcc report afaik but articles themselves are more up to date)
>www.climaterealitycheck.net/download
David Spratt and Ian Dunlop- authors of this "report" are the same people who have written the report which was panned by scientists who fact-checked it- https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton/
grundar t1_j8q46kv wrote
> There is no evidence for projected warming <3-4C of any tipping points that significantly change the warming trajectory.
Just to back up this point, r/science discussed a paper in Science which examined known tipping points 5 months ago. I extracted a list of those tipping points, their thresholds, their effects, and their timescales.
As you say, none of the near-warming (<4C) near-term (<200-year timescale) tipping points had significant global effects on warming or sea level rise.
[deleted] t1_j8oj3s9 wrote
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