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grundar t1_j7o8ly9 wrote on February 8, 2023 at 5:27 AM

Reply to comment by ludwigvanboltzmann in Current climate policies lead the world to less than a 5 percent likelihood of phasing out coal by mid-century ,new study shows by 9273629397759992

> > the International Energy Agency projects carbon emissions will fall 15-20% by 2030.
>
> I don't care why it's happening, I do care that it's not happening anywhere near fast enough...

...fast enough for what, exactly?

A 15-20% emissions reduction by 2030 puts us on the second-lowest IPCC pathway which is estimated to result in 1.8C of warming by 2100 (+0.6C above today), in line with Climate Action Tracker's estimate.

So we're certainly not on track for holding warming to 1.5C; however, we are on track for holding warming below 2C, which is a better outcome than I expected even just 5 years ago, and is far better than Climate Action Tracker's most optimistic projection from 5 years ago.

It's not perfect, but it's substantial progress, so I'll take that as a good starting point.