grundar t1_j7hsi7v wrote
Reply to comment by SexyOldHobo in Current climate policies lead the world to less than a 5 percent likelihood of phasing out coal by mid-century ,new study shows by 9273629397759992
> Voters have shown they do not want change, so there will be none
Voters are not the only source of change -- change is happening because it's cheaper.
That's why the USA is closing fossil fuel power plants twice as fast as it's building them (7.5GW added vs. 16GW retired in 2023).
That's why Texas went from 6% wind+solar in 2012 to 17% in 2017 to 31% in 2022.
And that's also why the International Energy Agency projects carbon emissions will fall 15-20% by 2030.
Is that a morally satisfying reason for change to occur? No, not really -- it feels weird to have the right thing happen for the wrong reason. Climate change is important enough that we don't really get to be choosy about why the needed change is happening, only that the needed change is happening.
And, make no mistake, as the above data shows change is indeed happening. It may not be the kind of sweeping environmental awakening one might have hoped for, but it replaced coal and gas with wind+solar+storage, so for now that'll have to do.
ludwigvanboltzmann t1_j7k1kbk wrote
I don't care why it's happening, I do care that it's not happening anywhere near fast enough...
grundar t1_j7o8ly9 wrote
> > the International Energy Agency projects carbon emissions will fall 15-20% by 2030.
>
> I don't care why it's happening, I do care that it's not happening anywhere near fast enough...
...fast enough for what, exactly?
A 15-20% emissions reduction by 2030 puts us on the second-lowest IPCC pathway which is estimated to result in 1.8C of warming by 2100 (+0.6C above today), in line with Climate Action Tracker's estimate.
So we're certainly not on track for holding warming to 1.5C; however, we are on track for holding warming below 2C, which is a better outcome than I expected even just 5 years ago, and is far better than Climate Action Tracker's most optimistic projection from 5 years ago.
It's not perfect, but it's substantial progress, so I'll take that as a good starting point.
SolarStarVanity t1_j7jp8b6 wrote
That's like saying "You have a bleeding gunshot wound, and you are going to die from it pretty soon, but here is an Advil! It might not be the first aid you were hoping for, but it's what I got, so for now that'll have to do."
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