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Mad-Lad-of-RVA OP t1_ja6dgn8 wrote

Lamont Bagby – 4,726 (72.43%)

Alexsis E. Rodgers – 1,375 (21.07%)

Dawn Marie Adams – 424 (6.50%)

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Charlesinrichmond t1_ja6dm61 wrote

That is an insane landslide. You don't often see competitive races with blow outs like that

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Mad-Lad-of-RVA OP t1_ja6es0x wrote

IDK, it seems pretty expected to me.

If you look at Bagby's district versus Adams' district versus the district of SD-09 that was up for grabs, you'll see that Adams' barely overlaps it, while Bagby's very much does. Rodgers has some name recognition because of the mayoral race, but so much of the district is outside of Richmond's city limits, where she's more of a no-name.

I would have been surprised to see a close result.

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lycosid t1_ja7e5gk wrote

Yea I imagine the only reason Rodgers jumped in was for the slight boost in name recognition in the region. She should have a better shot at winning Bagby’s seat.

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Charlesinrichmond t1_ja7zo7o wrote

I really thought she did. I think it's pushback for all her "Defund the Police" stuff..

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lycosid t1_ja83q78 wrote

Bagby has repped a delegate seat that covers close to half the district since 2015, he’s chair of the Black Legislative Caucus, and had endorsements from Kaine, Warner, and local IBEW. It was a lock.

Only a minor portion of the district is in the city, so most voters yesterday had probably never heard of her. As a quick check, about 30% of votes in this district in 2019 came from the city. Rodgers getting 21% in a 4 day campaign against two sitting delegates feels like a massive over performance. She also over performed by quite a bit in the mayoral race. I would bet on her getting into office soon enough.

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nfojones t1_ja8re8k wrote

Agree she overperformed and never had a chance at this seat.

Personally think her Mayor loss should have turned into a future City Council run. I do think she has a better chance at the House seat but wish she'd enter state politics with more experience.

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Charlesinrichmond t1_ja84jjw wrote

city media doesn't stop a city lines, and Rogers ran for mayor with a lot of coverage. I really doubt no one had not heard of her.

This was a massive whiff

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Charlesinrichmond t1_ja6f41j wrote

I thought Dawn Adams would get blown away. But Rogers actually really underperformed, look at all the support for her here on Reddit.

Of course another example that one shouldn't take online too seriously

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opienandm t1_ja6gncr wrote

>But Rogers actually really underperformed, look at all the support for her here on Reddit

Or it could mean that Bagby supporters don’t post as much as Rodgers supporters.

The vocal minority skews perceptions when the majority does not speak up.

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Mad-Lad-of-RVA OP t1_ja6fegn wrote

/r/rva is far more representative of people in the city of Richmond proper than anywhere else, from what I've found. A lot of the Rodgers supporters on here probably couldn't vote today because they weren't in the relevant district.

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Charlesinrichmond t1_ja805r3 wrote

it is, but that's not just the issue. Though I look forward to seeing some sort of city vs county breakdown. The online left is very vocal, but every study and poll and election shows it doesn't get elected

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gocarsgo t1_ja96yvt wrote

Preliminary breakdowns by precinct have been calculated.

It looks like Richmond was the most competitive (45/43/11 B/R/A) and Henrico (East End) was the most lopsided (90/7/2 B/R/A).

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Charlesinrichmond t1_jaai5w1 wrote

Oh nice thanks. Roger's Richmond loss is more on the line of what I was expecting

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ttd_76 t1_ja6wbvw wrote

Rodgers never had a chance. She does has Sonjia Smith behind her, so with a full campaign she can be dangerous.

But that's why I question if what she is doing. This is twice now she has entered into campaigns with low name recognition, not much time to campaign and where she cannot win.

There are plenty of elections she can win, but she won't run in them. I could see how maybe she's just trying to get her name out there, but I don't know if It's working.

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Mad-Lad-of-RVA OP t1_ja740tv wrote

I still think that Rodgers gets way too much credit for far too little substance. Everyone (at least in this subreddit) talks about how progressive she supposedly is, but her actual policy positions are far and few between, and the ones that do exist have little depth to them.

She just seems to be Progressive Vibes ™ : The Candidate. At best, she seems incompetent for entering races at a significant disadvantage, as you mention, and for not listing policy positions on her website, like any other damn candidate does.

For the record, I don't think that there was a good candidate in this race. Bagby takes far too much corporate money for my liking. Rodgers was a 'no' from me for the reasons I just described, and Adams is, well, Adams. She had the staffer scandal and, while she's no Bagby, she's taken a few corporate bucks here and there. Ultimately, I was one of the 464 to vote for Adams, but I wasn't particularly happy about it. She also comes across as incompetent, but at least she has tangible policy positions.

I'm really glad that this election is about as low-stakes as it gets since the districts will be redrawn in November, because hoo boy, I think we can do better.

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ttd_76 t1_ja85zos wrote

Basically, yeah.

I actually got to meet her. I definitely wouldn't call her a policy wonk. But she's not just a flaming radical shit-stirring idiot, either.

But she hasn't been able to translate this into her campaigns or public image. I think it is quite possible she could be good. But as you said, she appears to run largely on vibes alone.

That's why I wonder why she doesn't run for city council where it looks like she can win at least two districts. Or take a job in state or local government instead of just being a lobbyist. Show people that there's more to her than just slogans and memes.

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Charlesinrichmond t1_ja800z2 wrote

not going to happen - which is why all 3 ran now. You add incumbency and Bagby is a sure fire win, even with a changed district.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see someone run against Bagby, as long as it isn't Adams or Rogers. I think he's the best of that lot

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Mad-Lad-of-RVA OP t1_ja8gb02 wrote

Huh? I know Bagby's a shoe-in. Where did I ever say otherwise?

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Charlesinrichmond t1_ja7zu4x wrote

I thought she had a pretty good chance. In fact, I wouldn't have bet on her, but I would have said it was 50/50 between her and Bagby. So I was shocked she was blown out of the water so epically

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sleevieb t1_ja6tq13 wrote

How can you even evaluate a 7k vote race as competitive?

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The campaign was 4 days long.

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Charlesinrichmond t1_ja808m3 wrote

for all of them... So yeah, it's a meaningful data set. Not so much at 50/50, but the blowout, yes

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sleevieb t1_ja8gzcy wrote

The data is worthless as name recognition isn't the most important thing but arguably the only thing.

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Charlesinrichmond t1_ja8jrgm wrote

and Alexis Rogers had a lot. The only one hurting on that was dawn adams

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sleevieb t1_ja99mo7 wrote

There was no substance to this campaign because it was 4 days long.

Bagby won because he had cash on hand and name recognition.

I look forward to him trying to win in a VASTLy different district in the very near future.

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ttd_76 t1_jaamnuf wrote

Bagby was born in Richmond, graduated from Henrico HS, went to college at NSU, got his masters from VCU, served on the Henrico school board, served on NSU’s Board of Visitors, runs a non-profit in East End, and has represented a chunk of the district in the House.

How is he “buying” his way in? His name recognition comes from a lifetime of living and serving in the community his entire life.

At some point, you have to come to grips with reality. Dominion money or not, people voted for Bagby because they know him, they like him and they trust him.

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sleevieb t1_jaaxlra wrote

A 4 day campaign is not democratic and shame on the democratic party.

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ttd_76 t1_jab8ixc wrote

They had to fill the seat. It would be un-democratic if one of the most Democratic districts in the state had no representation during a GA session.

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sleevieb t1_jacmkfv wrote

They knew the time table when mcceachin died and left all of us in the dark.

The session is currently scheduled to be 1 day. Veto day.

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Diet_Coke t1_ja7tkd5 wrote

This election was pretty poorly advertised and planned - I know there were external constraints. A snap election like this basically means whoever can mobilize the most reliable Democratic voters will get it. That seems to be Bagby who is more plugged into the Democratic party establishment. All around a resounding victory for Dominion and coal energy.

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e: Just for some context, every single city council election in the last cycle had more voters than this one (6,525 votes). Mike Jones running uncontested got 7,200 votes in his district. Only two council members received fewer votes than Lamont Bagby, Ann Francis Lambert (3,900) and Reva Trammell (4,300).

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