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sQGNXXnkceeEfhm t1_j19hyqp wrote

Reply to comment by thenousman in Epistemic Trespassing: Stay in your lane mf by thenousman

In the context of an expert though, where do you draw the line on confidence?

I agree that, in the courtroom case, it is obviously too far (and generally have no patience for doctors with absolutely NO grasp of statistics). But I do see how we get here: a doctor has to guide her patients through decisions. If she has to give advice that she is only 99% certain of (say, telling a patient they likely have 6 weeks vs 6 months to live), at some point they have to make the call themselves and not consult a statistician.

So basically, I think that the position of expert encourages this, as they will become more and more confident in their non-expert area over time.

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iiioiia t1_j19un96 wrote

> In the context of an expert though, where do you draw the line on confidence?

I say: at drawing conclusions (upgrading propositions to facts). It is not necessary to categorize something as a fact before taking action, it is only a cultural norm. The world runs mostly on mere belief, it just doesn't appear that way.

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thenousman OP t1_j19q4iu wrote

I dunno, it’s an active area of research. But I agree about human nature tends towards overconfidence.

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