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AgentSmith26 t1_j0aawuo wrote

Supposing sentience is defined as passing the Turing test, how did he actually calculate a probability of 20%?

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hackinthebochs OP t1_j0aeh1d wrote

Probability in this context usually means credence, that is, subjective probability. It's a way to quantify your expectation of an event when you can't do a frequency analysis. So Chalmers claim should be understood as "I give 20% credence to AI sentience within 10 years".

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AgentSmith26 t1_j0agzq5 wrote

Gracias for the answer - makes sense!

A quick question. Could I interpret Chalmers' statement as follows:

Out of 100 earth-like civilizations in our present technological state (2022), 20 developed AI in 10 years.

?

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hackinthebochs OP t1_j0aj2im wrote

I think that's a good way to think about it. If we have a reasonably accurate understanding of the work remaining, then the credence is his expectation of how fast progress will proceed. The other relevant dimension is the accuracy of this understanding of how much is left to do. For example, is artificial sentience even possible at all? Is it a few technological innovations away, or very many?

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