Professionals can't do this with success. What makes you think you can?

If you can predict the market with 51% certainty then you can turn $1 into a billion in less than 10 years

Professionals with armies of quants behind them.

I never said I could. Just asking whether or not it's worth considering. Explicitly said it's very hard to ever know.

What if I continue to predict the market with 35% certainty? What then?

You’re asking if trying to time the market is a good idea. Even professionals routinely fail at this. The answer is a resounding “no”.

Also be mindful about quoting “average” returns. Read this, and pay particular attention to the graphic.

https://www.morningstar.in/posts/48522/the-flaw-of-averages.aspx

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I think you turn $1 billion into $1 in less than 10 years…..

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No. It's not worth considering. The point of my rhetorical question is that if it was so easy, everyone would do it. Of course it's easy to look back and see the low and high points but in the moment is the hard part.

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It’s the Elon Musk method of investing

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Higher returns come with higher risks. Do you really understand the risks? Also short-term capital gains (realized within 1 year) are taxed higher than long-term gains in the US.

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The downside of this method - popularly called 'market timing' - is that you can lock yourself out of gains if you get it wrong. The conventional wisdom is that "Time in the market beats timing the market."

It’s not. Past performance and indicators don’t imply future. So there’s nothing to analyze until after the fact.

Here’s an article that might be useful in light of this question and why investing on a consistent basis vs trying to time the market isnt worth it

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

This is where asset allocation comes into play. The “general” rule on social media is to have an emergency fund, then invest the rest in 100% S&P500 index funds. We know not to touch the emergency fund. But, if your investments are 100% equity (stocks in the S&P500) how do you rebalance?

Asset allocation adds in a cash and bond position to your investment portfolio so you have three areas to invest your money; cash=opportunity funds, bonds=income, and stocks=appreciation/growth. Everyone’s allocation should be unique to their risk tolerance and your portfolio should be rebalanced periodically (every 6 months or annually works well).

We have a 15% cash, 15% bond, and 70% stock allocation. As stocks were going up in 2020, rebalancing told me to sell stock positions and rebalance my cash and bond positions. As stocks tanked earlier this year, my rebalance had me buying more stocks and reducing my cash and bond positions.

Asset allocation follows buffets, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. You can never time the market efficiently and emotions always come into play. But, having an asset allocation in place and rebalancing to the set allocation removes all of that. You simply sell/buy what is needed to get back into balance.

In any given decade of the market, there’s bound to be 2-3 “bad years” for investing. But we are not fortune tellers. Nobody in the world knows what’s going to happen tomorrow, next year, or next decade. You just keep investing and in the long run… you’ll come out on top. If you read Common Sense Investing by John C. Bogle (founder of Vanguard and index funds), you’ll learn and understand that is an absolute fact.

Put money into cash generating investments. Regardless of the market, you're good.

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That’s the trick - you don’t hold your money, you hold other people’s money.

I wouldn’t right now, it’s pretty volatile rn. I would suggest using money in cook groups

Don't try and time the market with your nest egg. It's not a horrible idea to buy after a giant market drop.