I'm an engineer who spent 18 years at my last company and will be at my second/current one until I retire, so let me offer my thoughts since we seem similar.

There's nothing wrong with staying with a company, provided you're paid what your worth (and like the job of course). If you have a good manager and/or stick up for yourself, that shouldn't be an issue. If someone gets paid more going to a new job, either they weren't getting paid enough before, or they're agreeing to more accountability and responsibility at their new job. The job offers I got when I switched were right around my then-current salary, and that was expected, because I had a good manager. I've never asked for a raise but have gotten one every year (two this year, thanks to inflation!)^1. I've never asked for a promotion either, but have gotten those as well.

And I can play the "what if" game all I want, but I know this: my current salary is consummate with my experience and skill. If I scored 10%-25% increases by job-hopping, there's no way I could be doing what I'm doing now (real engineering, minor project management), because my $250k salary (or whatever) would mean I'd be spending all day going over budgets, leading multiple team meetings, dealing with customers at a high level, and trying to turn little KPI icons green. No thanks.

^1 If you care, median is 4.0%, mean is 5.86%. These were 4.9% and 7.0% for my first job; my new job offers lower raises which I knew about going in, but they make it up in great retirement benefits.