Well now you're getting into "timing the market" territory. How do you know for a fact that the market will go down much further, and can you tell me where you bought your crystal ball, so I can get one? Just regularly contribute each pay period, and you will end up in a good place by the time you retire.

Recessions and market drops don't necessarily correlate. We may already have the market drop caused from an expected recession. And when a recession happens, people are often optimistic about the future of the market since "it can only get better" which will cause prices to rise.

Your relationship assumptions between a recession and market drops are questionable at best. Not to mention you have 30+ years to keep the money invested so right now will look like a tiny blip at that point in the future and won't make a material difference in the long term.

> But with the looming recession, wouldn't it be smarter to wait until they come down further?

Come down further? They've been on an upward trend for 2 months.

The stock market and recessions are not necessarily correlated. Read this: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/11/the-sp-500-is-not-the-economy/

Many people have thought a “looming recession” was coming just for it to not ever come.

What you’re describing is trying to time the market.

If it’s actually 96% likely a recession is coming then that’s already priced into the market today as investors would already know this and take money out now.

Just buy and hold. Time in the market always beats timing the market. Buy stocks and don’t look at their value ever.

The market has already priced in a recession a while ago which is a contributing factor to the poor market. Another major contributing factor is the uncertainty behind inflation. We have already seen a sign that inflation may be slowing per the last CPI report. If good reports continue the market will react accordingly. We are in a situation where bad news = good news for the market. A recession means a rapid deceleration in inflation which would be great news for the market. You’ve already payed for the recession within your 401k. Like everyone else is saying invest now, early and often and don’t try and fuck around. Don’t cancel your vacation cause you need an oil change.

If you're the less than 10% that can consistently outperform the market via market timing, sure.

If you're like a vast majority of investors, investing early and often is better than trying to time it.

What happens when you miss rally? There are articles on this but most of hte big gains you see in stocks or investment accounts are from big single day rallies, those days where markets jump 3 or 5% after a string of losses.

You are literally trying to time the market. If it were that easy we would all be millionaires because everybody would buy stock when it is going to jump again. I literally lost a max year contribution 2 months after contributing it in 2022, I get it, But the point is we are young and you shouldn’t be looking at it that way. 401k is something you need to look 30 years down th e road. By not contributing not only are ou missing out on the match but you are missing out on compouning. So no it’s definitely not better to wait until post recession. Take a look at compounding articles and videos people really need to understand it. It’s why so many want out of SS.