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NetQuarterLatte t1_j5pz7l2 wrote

Reply to comment by Rottimer in VISION ZERO 2022: More Dead Kids, More Crashes in Known Danger Zones by mossylegacy

It’s only possible to say the bail laws are not a factor if we had 13750 car thieves, with each of them only stealing one car and never reoffending.

But that would require NYC to have 13750 car thieves, which is an absurd number (more than 170 per 100,000).

But let’s them keep driving the stolen cars, shall we?

A stolen vehicle is 150 to 200x more likely to be involved in a car accident. So at least we have that going.

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Rottimer t1_j5q1ki7 wrote

Car thefts are not tied to arrests. So your assertion isn’t true at all. You could have 13,750 car thefts by one very busy person who has never been caught and bail reform would have had zero impact on that crime figure.

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NetQuarterLatte t1_j5q4mwe wrote

Fair.

A combination of recidivism during the pre-trial period and a measure of loss in the deterrence effect would be a better way of measuring the impact of the bail reform and the other related reforms (automatic discovery, raise the age, etc).

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