Rottimer t1_j5pua4q wrote on January 24, 2023 at 6:58 PM

Reply to comment by NetQuarterLatte in VISION ZERO 2022: More Dead Kids, More Crashes in Known Danger Zones by mossylegacy

Now look up the index of used car prices in 2019 - 2022. Let me help:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SETA02

So the easiest cars to steal (see Hyundai and Kia’s lack of immobilizers in used models) are worth 50-60% more year over year. And you think it’s bail reform that caused a spike in car thefts?

NetQuarterLatte t1_j5pz7l2 wrote on January 24, 2023 at 7:29 PM

It’s only possible to say the bail laws are not a factor if we had 13750 car thieves, with each of them only stealing one car and never reoffending.

But that would require NYC to have 13750 car thieves, which is an absurd number (more than 170 per 100,000).

But let’s them keep driving the stolen cars, shall we?

A stolen vehicle is 150 to 200x more likely to be involved in a car accident. So at least we have that going.

Rottimer t1_j5q1ki7 wrote on January 24, 2023 at 7:44 PM

Car thefts are not tied to arrests. So your assertion isn’t true at all. You could have 13,750 car thefts by one very busy person who has never been caught and bail reform would have had zero impact on that crime figure.

NetQuarterLatte t1_j5q4mwe wrote on January 24, 2023 at 8:02 PM

Fair.

A combination of recidivism during the pre-trial period and a measure of loss in the deterrence effect would be a better way of measuring the impact of the bail reform and the other related reforms (automatic discovery, raise the age, etc).