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NetQuarterLatte t1_j5mgbzi wrote

Reply to comment by mission17 in VISION ZERO 2022: More Dead Kids, More Crashes in Known Danger Zones by mossylegacy

Probably the most impactful thing the bail reform did to traffic safety was making auto theft not-bail eligible.

Color me skeptic, but I don't believe drivers fleeing with stolen cars care if the car gets damaged. Let alone caring about traffic safety.

  • 2019: 5,430 GLA (GRAND LARCENY AUTO)
  • 2020: 9,037 GLA
  • 2021: 10,415 GLA
  • 2022: 13,750 GLA
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brownredgreen t1_j5mhhjl wrote

CITATION NEEDED

You anti bail reform people are well known liars.

Documented proof or STFU

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NetQuarterLatte t1_j5mjc8g wrote

You can believe, without any evidence, that car thieves drive stolen cars as safely as everyone else. That's up to you.

Anyone who can set ideology aside for a minute can apply some common sense here.

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mission17 t1_j5mlze1 wrote

Your leap from "reckless driver" to "car thief" seemed to purposely miss a few other probable explanations for why crashes occur in order to reach your desired conclusion in every thread (bail reform and Bragg = bad).

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Rottimer t1_j5pua4q wrote

Now look up the index of used car prices in 2019 - 2022. Let me help:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SETA02

So the easiest cars to steal (see Hyundai and Kia’s lack of immobilizers in used models) are worth 50-60% more year over year. And you think it’s bail reform that caused a spike in car thefts?

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NetQuarterLatte t1_j5pz7l2 wrote

It’s only possible to say the bail laws are not a factor if we had 13750 car thieves, with each of them only stealing one car and never reoffending.

But that would require NYC to have 13750 car thieves, which is an absurd number (more than 170 per 100,000).

But let’s them keep driving the stolen cars, shall we?

A stolen vehicle is 150 to 200x more likely to be involved in a car accident. So at least we have that going.

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Rottimer t1_j5q1ki7 wrote

Car thefts are not tied to arrests. So your assertion isn’t true at all. You could have 13,750 car thefts by one very busy person who has never been caught and bail reform would have had zero impact on that crime figure.

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NetQuarterLatte t1_j5q4mwe wrote

Fair.

A combination of recidivism during the pre-trial period and a measure of loss in the deterrence effect would be a better way of measuring the impact of the bail reform and the other related reforms (automatic discovery, raise the age, etc).

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