goalposts moved again? fine.

Joe Robison is a data reporter for moveBuddha.com.

2022 moveBuddha data shows that Webster, NY has the highest move ratio so far this year, with 134 moves in for every 100 moves out. The next highest cities are Ithaca, NY (127 to 100) and Fairport, NY (126 to 100).

The worst move ratio goes to Jamaica, NY with only 27 moves in for every 100 moves out. Followed by Bronx, NY (36 to 100) and Staten Island, NY (27 to 100).

Those leaving New York in 2022 are mostly headed to Florida, California, and Texas, in that order. Together, they comprise of over 40% of moves out of NY.

moveBuddha’s data in 2022, shows NY has the #4 worst move ratio.

Are people leaving New York in 2022?

Start spreading the news: Plenty of New Yorkers are leaving today. And while NYC is seeing the most out-moves compared to welcoming new residents, almost everywhere in the Empire State is feeling some loss. What are the cities with the biggest influx and outflux?

New York state has long been a place where immigrants and dreamers could come up in the world, a place that knows what it means to make it big. New York City rose to the top of the U.S. population charts by 1850, partly because it helped grow the state’s economy with the Erie Canal and the country’s first regular rail service across the state, building thriving communities from Albany to Buffalo. But the tide is turning.

In 2020 alone, New York City experienced a temporary exodus of residents relocating to avoid the COVID-19 pandemic. Not only is NYC one of the densest in the country, but it was also a pandemic epicenter early on, reinforcing the idea that those huddled masses weren’t safe for residents yearning to breathe free. Add the possibility of remote work and the high cost of living, and New Yorkers found it was time to make their move. Upstate, residents continued their exodus, too.

But while the pandemic was temporary, New York state’s outmigration has proven to have staying power. We wanted to look at the moveBuddha data to find out who is leaving the Empire State, which cities they’re leaving, and where they’re heading.

Table of Contents

I. Moving to New York: Statewide trends from the last decade and during the new decade’s great migration

II. 2022 Forecast: Which New York cities are surging in popularity and which are losing residents?

III. Real Insights: We asked locals, why are people leaving New York?

IV. Sources and Methodology

I. New York Exodus

New York lost more residents than any other state from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021, according to U.S. Census population estimates. During this time, the state registered the biggest numeric decline in the country, at a 319,020 population loss. And that makes sense, largely because of how hard NY was hit by the COVID-19 Pandemic during this time.

moveBuddha data from 2022 shows that the state of New York hasn’t bounced back. It ranks alongside other states seeing significantly more moves exiting the state than moving in:

New Jersey

California

Illinois

New York

According to search queries from the first 6 months of 2022, New York has the #4 worst move ratio, with only 65 searches in for every 100 searches out.

Both moveBuddha and U.S. Census data show that, as a whole, New York is seeing fewer people move in than out over the past few years. And the trend shows no signs of slowing down: New York moving searches make up 10.4% of moveBuddha’s total queries from January 1, 2022-August 5, 2022.

Locations near New York City account for the biggest losses, even adjusted for population. In fact, the U.S. Census shows that 4 of the top 10 counties in percent population decline from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021 are in New York:

#1 New York County (-6.9%)

#6 Kings County (-3.5%)

#8 Bronx County (-3.2%)

#9 Queens County (-3.1%)

Virus or not, the recovery of counties surrounding New York City may mirror that of other pandemic patients—slow, and full of setbacks. Here are some common culprits that could be responsible for New York’s high number of out-moves:

Economic Trouble: The pandemic shuttered a third of New York’s businesses, and current unemployment in New York County is 11.2% (the national average is just 6%). Underemployment is also a problem, particularly for people of color.

Skyrocketing Rents: While fewer residents are employed, average rents have risen every year for the past five years, despite the declining population.

Cost of Living Crisis: New York City is the most expensive place for renters in the nation, and the cost of living is 87% above average. Without jobs, it’s hard to imagine how rents have soared 39.9% year over year.

High Taxes: With common origin states having some of the highest taxes in the country and destination states having some of the lowest, many point the finger at taxes.

Where are Empire State residents going? According to moveBuddha data, Florida, California, and Texas top the list, making up over 40% of all out-of-state moves.

now you may draw whatever conclusion you may, that's what you're entitled to. But I don't have to sit here and entertain everyone's nonsense either. Someone too lazy to Google for themselves insulting me for citing an article I NEVER said I agreed with. That's enough of that for today.. some of y'all are hopeless, I could waste my time forever and they'd never make any progress.