drpvn t1_ixs1nvs wrote
Reply to comment by ZinnRider in What to Know Now That the N.Y.P.D. Is on Amazon’s Neighborhood Watch App by k1lk1
We don’t need more police in NYC—we have a lot of officers—but we also don’t need many fewer.
“Police do not prevent crime” is midwit copypasta. Really dumb, really wrong, and contrary to both common sense and decades of research. But there are some people who will never stop cutting and pasting it.
Koboldsftw t1_ixsjab1 wrote
All the research I have seen directly contradicts what you claim the research shows.
drpvn t1_ixsldf1 wrote
I highly doubt that.
Koboldsftw t1_ixslxgp wrote
drpvn t1_ixw5vpg wrote
I don’t have anything from an advocacy group comparable to Vera, but here are a handful of research papers from academic journals. You need to understand that the idea that policing has no effect on crime is a fringe activist view that has been mainstreamed by dimwits copy-pasting on social media.
Aziai, Alberto. 2022. “What happens when the police go on strike? Analysing how a marked reduction in policing impacts upon homicides in Ceará, Brazil.” Global Crime, DOI: 10.1080/17440572.2022.2098121 (The [police] strike led to a statistically significant increase in homicides ranging between 110% and 250%…. Even in a violent context, the perception of a higher risk of apprehension induced by police presence acts as a powerful deterrent against homicides.)
Blesse, Sebastian and André Diegmann. 2022. “The place-based effects of police stations on crime: Evidence from station closures.” Journal of Public Economics. Vol. 207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104605 (Many countries consolidate their police forces by closing down local police stations. Police stations represent an important and visible aspect of the organization of police forces. We provide novel evidence on the effect of centralizing police offices through the closure of local police stations on crime outcomes. Combining matching with a difference-in-differences specification, we find an increase in reported car theft and burglary in residential properties. Our results are consistent with a negative shift in perceived detection risks and are driven by heterogeneous station characteristics. We can rule out alternative explanations such as incapacitation, crime displacement, and changes in police employment or strategies at the regional level. We argue that criminals are less deterred due to a lower visibility of the local police.)
Braga, Anthony. 2017. “Editorial introduction. Impact of Police on CJ Reform. Arrests, Harm Reduction, and Police Crime Prevention Policy.” Criminology & Public Policy. Vol. 16(2): 369-373. (Communities expect the police to control violence. Ineffective strategies will undoubtedly undermine police legitimacy. Effective police crime prevention efforts are characterized by changing the perceptions of potential offenders of apprehension risk and by modifying criminal opportunities (Nagin, Solow, and Lum, 2015). Although arrests are inevitable, police should be oriented toward preventing crimes from happening in the first place.)
Braga A., Kennedy D., Pielh A and Waring E. 2001. “Measuring the Impact of Operation Ceasefire in Reducing Gun Violence: The Boston gun project’s operation ceasefire.” NIJ. (The time series shows a 63-percent reduction in the mean monthly number of youth homicide victims from a pretest mean of 3.5 youth homicides per month to a post test mean of 1.3 youth homicides per month. Analyses suggest that the Ceasefire intervention was associated with statistically significant reductions in all time series., including: A 63-percent decrease in the monthly number of youth homicides in Boston. A 32-percent decrease in the monthly number of citywide shots-fired calls. A 25-percent decrease in the monthly number of citywide all-age gun assault incidents.)
Braga, Anthony A., Andrew V. Papachristos & David M. Hureau (2012). “The Effects of Hot Spots Policing on Crime: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.” Justice Quarterly. Vol. 31(4): 633-663. (Abstract: Our research suggests that hot spots policing generates small but noteworthy crime reductions, and these crime control benefits diffuse into areas immediately surrounding targeted crime hot spots. Our analyses find that problem-oriented policing interventions generate larger mean effect sizes when compared to interventions that simply increase levels of traditional police actions in crime hot spots. We also find that only a small number of studies examine the impacts of hot spots policing on police-community relations. The extant research on this topic, however, suggests that community members have positive reactions to these focused policing actions. [See also: Braga et al, 2018, “An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Empirical Evidence.”])
Braga A., Weisburd, D., Turchan, B. 2018. “An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Empirical Evidence.” Criminology & Public Policy. Volume 17. Issue 1. (The results of our meta-analysis demonstrate that focused deterrence strategies are associated with an overall statistically significant, moderate crime reduction effect.)
Braga, A. A., D. L. Weisburd, E. J. Waring, L. G. Mazerolle, W. Spelman, & F. Gajewski. “Problem-Oriented Policing in Violent Crime Places: A Randomized Controlled Experiment.” Justice Quarterly. Vol 31(4): 633-663. (Many researchers believe that crime problems can be reduced more efficiently if officers systematically focus their attention on crime “hot spots.” Previously, the value of focused problem-oriented policing efforts in controlling violence was not known. This randomized controlled experiment […] concluded that the Jersey City Police Department’s pilot problem-oriented policing program was successful at reducing crime and disorder at violent places, with little evidence of displacement.)
Braga, Anthony A., Brandon C. Welsh, and Cory Schnell. 2015. “Can policing disorder reduce crime? A systematic review and meta-analysis.” Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency. Vol. 52: 567–588. (Suggests that hot spots policing generates small but noteworthy crime reductions, and these crime control benefits diffuse into areas immediately surrounding targeted crime hot spots. Our analyses find that problem-oriented policing interventions generate larger mean effect sizes when compared to interventions that simply increase levels of traditional police actions in crime hot spots. [See also: Braga et al, 2018, “An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Empirical Evidence.”])
Chalfin, Aaron, Michael LaForest, and Jacob Kaplan. 2021. “Can Precision Policing Reduce Gun Violence? Evidence from ‘Gang Takedowns’ in New York City.” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. Vol 40(4), pp. 1047-1082. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pam.22323 (During the last decade, while national homicide rates have remained flat, New York City has experienced a second great crime decline, with gun violence declining by more than 50 percent since 2011. In this paper, we investigate one potential explanation for this dramatic and unexpected improvement in public safety—the New York Police Department’s shift to a more surgical form of “precision policing,” in which law enforcement focuses resources on a small number of individuals who are thought to be the primary drivers of violence. We study New York City’s campaign of “gang takedowns” in which suspected members of criminal gangs were arrested in highly coordinated raids and prosecuted on conspiracy charges. We show that gun violence in and around public housing communities fell by approximately one third in the first year after a gang takedown. Our estimates imply that gang takedowns explain nearly one quarter of the decline in gun violence in New York City’s public housing communities over the last eight years.)
Chalfin and McCrary. 2012. “The Effect of Police on Crime: New Evidence from U.S. Cities, 1960-2010.” https://eml.berkeley.edu//~jmccrary/chalfin_mccrary2012.pdf
Cheng, Cheng, Wei Long, 2019. “Improving police services: Evidence from the French Quarter Task Force.” Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 164, pp. 1-18, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.05.002. (This study sheds light on the improvement of police services by examining the French Quarter Task Force (FQTF) – an anti-crime program in New Orleans’ French Quarter. First, we provide new evidence that increasing police presence is effective in crime prevention. Our difference-in-differences estimates suggest that the FQTF, which increased police visibility in the French Quarter, reduced robberies, aggravated assaults, and thefts by 37.4%, 16.9%, and 13%, respectively. Second, our findings imply that the proper use of monitoring and incentive strategies has the potential to further improve police services. Exploiting the program’s change in management, we find that providing officers with more monitoring and performance incentives led the FQTF to reduce robberies by 22.12 and aggravated assaults by 5.56 each quarter.)
utamog t1_ixxc24c wrote
This should be stickied somewhere
Koboldsftw t1_ixwzdmw wrote
What criteria are you using to identify these studies as respectable and the sources cited by Vera as not respectable
drpvn t1_ixx0iwq wrote
Sigh.
Edit: lol, you blocked me.
Koboldsftw t1_ixx1081 wrote
Answer the question
[deleted] t1_ixw5z1v wrote
[removed]
drpvn t1_ixw611v wrote
There is a mountain of additional research. This is not controversial among non-activists.
[deleted] t1_ixwz357 wrote
[deleted]
Makeyoownmoney t1_ixujgth wrote
Take that biased, left-wing, Soros funded BS and shove it. Chicago? Better than NY, but the outskirts and its mayor are rubbish. The Russian paper selling dude with a radio station that tried to get everyone out of Rikers more quickly in the 60's. He died in 1971. The original message is long gone. Chicago beats NYC by having more rats. The human type too.
Koboldsftw t1_ixuk3y7 wrote
What
Makeyoownmoney t1_ixukdg2 wrote
Exactly. Thank you.
Koboldsftw t1_ixuo4b4 wrote
Instead of spewing weird nonsense why don’t you provide a source
LibertyNachos t1_ixut1qw wrote
we need officers to actually do their jobs instead of playing candy crush and refusing to answer calls because their feelings were hurt by some politician. if they were actual heroes they wouldn’t be so influenced by a corrupt union leader.
ripstep1 t1_ixvh2y2 wrote
Why police communities that hate them?
LibertyNachos t1_ixvj28r wrote
because they’re being paid to to do their jobs. that’s what a job is. if you want to protest doing your job, then quit instead of draining taxpayer resources.
ripstep1 t1_ixw4jjb wrote
Silent quitting seems to be supported by the work reform subreddit
LibertyNachos t1_iy1exm6 wrote
when it comes to essential services such as firefighting and law enforcement silent quitting is not acceptable for the public good, especially as well paid as these professionals are. no one dies if a teacher calls out sick.
ripstep1 t1_iy3o1ip wrote
Seems unfair. Why do teachers get more workers rights in that respect than “essential workers “. Seems to me like you are playing rules for thee but not for me.
LibertyNachos t1_iy3o5ar wrote
I’m not a teacher.
ripstep1 t1_iy5mjsf wrote
I never said you were. I don’t see why teachers can silent quit but nurses cannot.
LibertyNachos t1_iy5q0v7 wrote
Honestly, I don’t believe most teachers and nurses would do the same kind of silent quitting the NYPD is notorious for. they seem to employ people of better morals who don’t put their paycheck above the public good.
BiblioPhil t1_ixw0bao wrote
The communities hate them for a good reason. Like the fact that those communities pay them six-figure pensions and they still won't do their job unless they have carte blanche to crack skulls with no repercussions.
ripstep1 t1_ixw4bhn wrote
Then they won’t police them lmao. Same thing would happen if communities hated doctors
drpvn t1_ixw87kr wrote
The communities actually don’t hate the police.
BiblioPhil t1_ixx92j0 wrote
Distrustful is a better term. And decidedly not aligned with conservatives on policies concerning police. Wanting more police presence isn't a mandate for stop and frisk and doesn't mean they don't support measures to increase police accountability.
Grass8989 t1_ixwblaf wrote
The communities don’t hate the police, or else they wouldn’t have voted for Eric Adams, a cop, in the Democratic Mayoral primary.
BiblioPhil t1_ixwr96q wrote
If those people wanted "tough on crime" candidates who promised to use scorched-earth police tactics to "clean up" the streets, they had plenty of Republican candidates they could have supported.
Adams might seem pro-police compared to the progressive Dem field, but on a national level he absolutely wasn't close. He wasn't even supported by the PBA, which regarded him as a police critic and thorn in their side.
In any GOP primary he would have instantly been branded "soft on crime." Reddit's perspective is so skewed on this topic.
Grass8989 t1_ixwrvp9 wrote
He literally ran on a “tougher on crime” platform. That was a major part of his message and campaign, so much so that most on this sub labels him a Republican.
BiblioPhil t1_ixx8wb7 wrote
It's like you missed my entire point about "tough on crime" being relative.
And you're literally using this sub's views of Eric Adams to rebut my point about why this sub is wrong about Eric Adams.
longknives t1_ixut9se wrote
“Police do not prevent crime” is factual and not contrary to research or common sense. When was the last time you experienced cops preventing a crime? The only thing it’s contrary to is the vague idea people have that cops are probably out there preventing some crimes that are probably happening somewhere.
drpvn t1_ixw7jto wrote
People have been researching this for 50 years. The copypasta you see in your instagram and Twitter feeds is not research.
ripstep1 t1_ixvh8rx wrote
It prevents crime all the time. Many people choose not to shoplift because of the threat of consequences. I would be commiting WAY more crimes if the police disappeared. Etc.
drpvn t1_ixw7l6w wrote
These people are just brain dead.
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