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ProcrustesTongue t1_j43m6pj wrote

Reply to comment by we_are_mammals in Ukrainian refugee 'went home to see doctor as Scottish wait too long' by Thefriendlyfaceplant

Neat! Overall I think you're about right.

> The war's danger to Ukrainian civilians was 0.11% in 2022 (based on the highest estimate I've seen of 40,000 civilians killed out of about 36,000,000 currently there)

This is only the odds of dying from the war, you can still get murdered in Ukraine for reasons unrelated to the war. Is the murder rate in Ukraine lower than 0.02%? From some brief googling, it looks like the official rate is 0.006%, so from that you're less likely to be killed in Ukraine that Tijuana.

There are two wrinkles I'm not sure how to handle, however. First, most of the people murdered in Tijuana aren't foreigners, they're murdered because of conflicts between local gangs who don't want the attention of foreign governments. Second, the murder rate in Ukraine right now is probably higher than the official percentage. Unfortunately, the murder rate typically goes up when a country is in war since resources are scarcer and there's some degradation of the social order.

Again, nice analysis!

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we_are_mammals t1_j43uwdj wrote

> most of the people murdered in Tijuana aren't foreigners

But most people in Tijuana aren't foreigners either. I'd like to see a breakdown by visitor/local but couldn't find one. For all I know, tourists could be more likely to be targeted, because they have the money, but not the street smarts.

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