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we_are_mammals t1_j4355ih wrote

> The wait was so long that it actually made more sense for her to risk travelling back to a war zone to see her doctor in Kyiv and so she did.

Americans go to Tijuana all the time, but it's actually way more dangerous than Kyiv is right now, if you crunch the numbers:

  • Tijuana's murder rate is 0.13% per year (the official 2019 numbers)
  • The war's danger to Ukrainian civilians was 0.11% in 2022 (based on the highest estimate I've seen of 40,000 civilians killed out of about 36,000,000 currently there)

When your location is out of range of field artillery, as Kyiv is right now, you are statistically much safer. Some say you are safer in Tijuana if you are a tourist, but I'm not so sure, personally. It's certainly something they tell the tourists though.

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ProcrustesTongue t1_j43m6pj wrote

Neat! Overall I think you're about right.

> The war's danger to Ukrainian civilians was 0.11% in 2022 (based on the highest estimate I've seen of 40,000 civilians killed out of about 36,000,000 currently there)

This is only the odds of dying from the war, you can still get murdered in Ukraine for reasons unrelated to the war. Is the murder rate in Ukraine lower than 0.02%? From some brief googling, it looks like the official rate is 0.006%, so from that you're less likely to be killed in Ukraine that Tijuana.

There are two wrinkles I'm not sure how to handle, however. First, most of the people murdered in Tijuana aren't foreigners, they're murdered because of conflicts between local gangs who don't want the attention of foreign governments. Second, the murder rate in Ukraine right now is probably higher than the official percentage. Unfortunately, the murder rate typically goes up when a country is in war since resources are scarcer and there's some degradation of the social order.

Again, nice analysis!

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we_are_mammals t1_j43uwdj wrote

> most of the people murdered in Tijuana aren't foreigners

But most people in Tijuana aren't foreigners either. I'd like to see a breakdown by visitor/local but couldn't find one. For all I know, tourists could be more likely to be targeted, because they have the money, but not the street smarts.

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TheFuckAmIHereFor t1_j44ywd8 wrote

Tijuana, like most hoods in the US, won't kill you if you mind your own business and stay civil. Head down, no attempts to do something illegal, all that common sense stuff

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