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Michael_G_Bordin t1_j4ddw05 wrote

>Officials, in the West and in Ukraine, had begun to wonder if Russia's "energy war" might be coming to an end, due to a possible shortage of suitable missiles and the evident fact the strategy has yet to break Ukraine's spirit.

If there is one thing Russia has shown us, it is a stubborn willingness to commit to bad strategy at the expense of victory.

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robfrod t1_j4e66o8 wrote

Could they really be victorious with good strategy at this point? They basically lost this war in the first few weeks

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wildweaver32 t1_j4e9bnk wrote

Yeah. If they couldn't win when they had surprise, morale, and their military at its best and most trained while Ukraine didn't have much western equipment yet I don't see why anyone (including Russia) would think they could win now.

Ukraine now has a lot of western equipment and training. 1st Howitzers, then HIMARS, and now they are getting tanks. Ukraine is only getting stronger, better equipment, and better weapon systems.

It should be simple to see the outcome of this war with anyone who isn't completely blinded by bias.

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Forikorder t1_j4ebaip wrote

> It should be simple to see the outcome of this war with anyone who isn't completely blinded by bias.

might not be bias, if Putin is forced to admit defeat and lose Crimea hed probably be the next guy falling out a window, the only thing he can do is keep the war going to appear strong and pray that attrition favours russia

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Prysorra2 t1_j4ei22k wrote

Russia truly losing this war in the official sense would cause another revolutionary wave - even if definitely much smaller.

Belarus, Hungary, Iran, Serbia, and North Korea would lose a major ally or even direct sponsor.

The right wing wave would lose C3 and even a source of cash (so C4? lol).

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jjolla888 t1_j4iu0d7 wrote

can you describe what a loss by russia would actually look like?

"putin gets overthrown" doesn't tell me what we will see (other than a putin coffin).

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abfanhunter t1_j4h9ks8 wrote

Of course they do, you think US Bombs and missiles sell themselves? We sell death over here.

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Michael_G_Bordin t1_j4fjvfq wrote

At this point? No. They passed that point of no return when they failed to capture Kyiv.

There is a lot we still don't know behind the fog of war. The talks of Russian build-up in the north is worrying, but the fact Russia is so slow to update strategy makes me think if they make another push, they'll again be bogged down. The only way to properly invade is to first establish air supremacy over a long campaign of bombing and shelling, and Russia failed that point from the get-go.

But, I still think Russia would be doing better if they changed their strategy. They could change their "victory" conditions to suit their capabilities, and thus achieve some kind of "victory", but even those token objectives they keep laying forth turn out to be pipe dreams. They've taken months to barely capture Soledar, a town with a pre-war population of 10,000. I've been in small towns of about that much, and it's kinda sad the Russians expend so many lives over such a small and strategically worthless target.

IDK, I'm mostly just synthesizing information from the many military bloggers I've started following since Feb 22. The key takeaway I get from them is the situation is fluid, evolving, and there is much we don't know about either sides' operations. But from a general political POV, Russia most certainly fucked up from the get-go, and have doubled down on those fucked strategies.

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UNOvven t1_j4ewcgh wrote

Almost certainly not. But it seems they're intent to at least cause as much damage as possible. Despicable bastards.

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uxbridge3000 t1_j4lqdvo wrote

I wish the NATO nations would just collectively acknowledge the depth of Putin's fuckshow and send Ukraine the necessary equipment to take the fight directly to Moscow. This needs to end.

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Traditional_Art_7304 t1_j4ixdev wrote

Take out all their railways. - easy & creative please !! Soft for soft targets - at least it’s fair. Kneecap them !!!

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