Ukraine naturally would want to escalate the war because to them it would force Russia to the negotiating table in Ukrainians favor. But most of Russia, contrary to western belief, silently support the war. All the Russian anti-war protesters are a massive minority of Russians.

The sad reality is Ukraine has almost full mobilized and is suffering from manpower shortage and desertion among the lower ranks. Heck, last week their government increased the punishment of desertion. You don’t do that if you are not suffering for such a situation.

Russia meanwhile began their mobilization late, and it hasn’t even peaked yet. In a war of attrition Russia will come out as the winner, bloodied, but it’ll get its way.

Ukrainian support only lasts as long as western leadership is willing to support them. So what happens if say Trump gets re-elected? He’s happily axe all that support and leave them out to dry.

China is content to sit on the sideline. They might not say it, but they are still trading with the Russians and they are learning valuable military lessons from this war. This war will most likely dictate their policy going forward with Taiwan and the likes.