It is a tough decision. One of the hardest I have ever had to make. Not only do you need to learn each competing system you have to predict the future....i.e., your need for expensive medical treatments. That is unfortunately unknowable. The way I approached it was to actually take all the classes I needed to become licensed to sell medicare advantage or medicare supplement plans plus classes on base medicare coverage. I don't know anybody of means that simply takes base medicare and trusts the Govt to take care of them although unfortunately those people exist. My analysis was that the best coverage was base Medicare and a complete medicare supplement plan that would cover all the overages medicare won't cover and all the holes it has underneath the maximums. However that supplement was going to cost my wife and I about $500/month extra or $6000/year. Every year we were alive. Yes, Medicare advantage has some holes.......ours is a $5300 annual CoPay. So long as we stay out of the hospital we can save that $6000/year and put that money away for the years when we unfortunately will need some overnight stays. I have a colleague, another insurance professional, that took the Advantage plan for himself, a normal retired healthy male, but took the supplement for his wife who had a history of substantial medical problems. I support his analysis and decisions.

Whatever decision you made.....advantage or supplement, hopefully it will actually work out for you the way you analysed the choices.