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[deleted] t1_ixm3xvo wrote

[removed]

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Strict_Difficulty656 t1_ixm64ny wrote

Every report suggests heavy russian losses and excellent Ukrainian morale but go off I guess

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Kidrellik t1_ixmwury wrote

General Mark Milley said that both sides probably lost around a 100k soldiers in causalities but it's probably higher on the Ukrainian side now since they're on the offensive against dug in Russian troops with the artillery advantage. Now this wouldn't be a problem if the both had a similar population but they don't, Ukraine has about 34 million people compared to Russias 116 million. That means that a single Ukrainian soldier is a lot more valuable then a Russian one.

In the long term, it certainly doesn't look good for Ukraine if the causalities are somewhat equal and that's just the hard truth of the matter.

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ogipogo t1_ixn3zkp wrote

You've been making this comment repeatedly so why don't you go ahead and share a source?

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Odd-Employment2517 t1_ixnua5q wrote

France took 750 casualties per day for 4 years in a row and still won ww1. Ukraine is nowhere near that while Russia has passed US Vietnam combat deaths for the entire Vietnam war in less than 8 months

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Kidrellik t1_ixnuxi5 wrote

France also had a massive colonial empire to fall back on for manpower and 10% of the French population didn't leave the country. Ukraine is also more than likely taking that much or slightly below that much causalities as they were on the offencive against an enemy with the firepower advantage.

Russia has also taken 100k causalities, not a 100k dead. It's probably like 25k dead and 75k wounded. America and its allies suffered 340k dead and another 1.34 million causalities.

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keymone t1_ixo4ok4 wrote

You don’t account for russia’s dwindling support for war effort, sinking popularity of putin as coffins get shipped home and most importantly - degrading equipment in face of winter.

They have been on the back foot for 6 months and losing ground - that doesn’t play into “the great empire with second best army in the world” and at some point the charade will break from the inside.

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Kidrellik t1_ixoifiv wrote

Yea moral and the popularity of the war and Putin don't really matter since he has a massive internal police force which keep an eye on everything and arrest people left, right and center so the chance of some major revolution happening is pretty much slim to none right now. If it's like a million dead and 4 years from now, then there might be some real repercussions. Their equipment is also mostly going to be fine because they're artillery army well NATO is an air power army, which actually does get hampered a lot during winter.

They could also just say that they're fighting NATO in Ukraine which in all honesty, they kind of are. I mean Ukraine, a country with a gdp comparable to Mississippi , got a 100 billion dollars in 8 months of which 54 of that went to their army. That's the military budget of France, a country with 20 times they're gdp and comparable to Russia it self.

At the end of the day, this war is going to be years long and if it comes down to who could bleed more, Ukraine has to cause a lot more causalties then Russia does.

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DisabledToaster1 t1_ixmdbig wrote

That is what exactly?

They win in every aspect, and strategic bombing has NEVER made a population surrender.

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Kidrellik t1_ixmx3e9 wrote

No butnit has greatly weakend the front line capabilities since more and more AA is needed to protect critical infrastructure.

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Crizbibble t1_ixmfc39 wrote

Yes the inevitable of getting Crimea back and kicking Russian troops out of their country. You are so right Putin puppet.

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LieutJimDangle OP t1_ixmc42f wrote

All Russia can do is fling missiles half hazardly at power plants. Ukraine is dominating in all aspects on the ground.

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Orlando1701 t1_ixmoxe4 wrote

Care to expand on that idea because they’re retaking territory, sunk a Russian capital ship, and Russias economy is in disarray. You know Russia is doing well when they have to ask North Korea for help.

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Kidrellik t1_ixmyat9 wrote

General Mark Milley said that both sides probably lost around a 100k soldiers in causalities but it's probably higher on the Ukrainian side now since they're on the offensive against dug in Russian troops with the artillery advantage. Now this wouldn't be a problem if the both had a similar population but they don't, Ukraine has about 39 million people compared to Russias 143 million. That means that a single Ukrainian soldier is a lot more valuable then a Russian one so it's really more like Ukraine is losing 3.5 soldiers for every Russian soldier they take out.

Now Russia went in with like 220k soldiers and Ukraine had a generally mobilization process which gave then a 3 or 4 to 1 man power advantage by mid war, that why they were able to pull off that massive offencive in Kharkov but Russia has mobilized 300k troops and there are rumors that they'll mobilize another 400 to 600k soldiers, taking away that manpower advantage Ukraine had. They also bought millions of shells for pennies on the dollar and artillery is one of the few things thar kept them alive and somewhat balanced off the Ukrainian man power advantage so with in a year, they'll have both the manpower and artillery advantage.

In the long term, Ukraine needs to inflict 3 or 4 to 1 causalities against the Russians to maintain the war effort, it certainly doesn't look good for Ukraine if the causalities are somewhat equal and that's just the hard truth of the matter.

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Orlando1701 t1_ixmzknk wrote

Russia does have a larger population but… it’s a massively unpopular war at home which has created manpower shortages and Russia still has a home guard as to where Ukraine is fighting a war of survival and can throw 100% of its manpower into the war. So, your statement is factually accurate but leaves out a lot of the actual battlefield situation.

And if inflicting casualties is all they needed to win the war you’d be correct however, you are again taking a absurdly simplified view of the war. You don’t have to kill people if you can starve them out or destroy their motivation and we know that Russia has had craptastic logistics to the point that feeding its troops has been a problem and we have seen significant numbers of Russia troops just giving up. Also there’s the equipment issue, Russia effectively can’t replace lost equipment while Ukraine right now has an open pipeline from NATO to replace its equipment. So yeah, if this was a Napoleonic era war where manpower was the only real consideration but it’s 2022 and there’s far more going on.

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Kidrellik t1_ixn2mr8 wrote

It doesn't matter if a war is popular or not, they annexed 4 regions of Ukraine into Russia so they could sell the idea that they're defending Russia and anyone who doesn't want to fight is abandoning their country. That will make the mobilization pill a lot easier to swallow. Russia also doesn't have separatist groups to deal with and they have Central Asian immigrants to deal with all the tedious work so they could pretty much strip all the man power they need.

You're also stuck in the beginning of the war when Russian logistics were truly awful since they only brought enough supplies for 3 days, thinking they could YOLO run to Kyiv with out securing their flanks. They now have the logistical capabilities to get 40 to 50k soldiers across a river well being shelled relatively safely. We also haven't seen a significant number of Russian troops just giving up, weve just seen Ukrainian videos showing the ones that have. The battle of Mariupol alone led to 4000 Ukrainain pows, thats far more than how many Russians are in Ukrainian captivity.

That is also just not true, both Russia and Ukraine are Soviet armies and Russia still has tens of millions of AKs in storage. NATO maybe giving them guns which are 20% better but that doesn't matter since like you said, it's not the Napleonic Era where an extra shot per minute really matters.

At the end of the day, it's about who could bleed more and that's Russia.

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Odd-Employment2517 t1_ixnu3re wrote

What u mean inevitable Ukrainian victory? Russia no longer has any path to victory

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westplains1865 t1_ixmsj3e wrote

There is no military option where Russia will prevail. None. Ukraine has the support of the west ranging from funds, weapons, ammo and aid. Russia lost its strategic initiative and goals when the couldn't simply sweep in and install a puppet government. Russia is cut off from most of the rest of the world, under heavy sanctions. Ukrainian military morale is still high while Russian morale is very poor. "The inevitable" is a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine; its only a matter of when and not if.

This is not just Ukrainian propaganda, just an honest appraisal of the military situation both sides face.

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Kidrellik t1_ixmyi5m wrote

I'm just gonna copy and paste my other text but people really don't seem to understand the situation that well.

General Mark Milley said that both sides probably lost around a 100k soldiers in causalities but it's probably higher on the Ukrainian side now since they're on the offensive against dug in Russian troops with the artillery advantage. Now this wouldn't be a problem if the both had a similar population but they don't, Ukraine has about 39 million people compared to Russias 143 million. That means that a single Ukrainian soldier is a lot more valuable then a Russian one so it's really more like Ukraine is losing 3.5 soldiers for every Russian soldier they take out.

Now Russia went in with like 220k soldiers and Ukraine had a generally mobilization process which gave then a 3 or 4 to 1 man power advantage by mid war, that why they were able to pull off that massive offencive in Kharkov but Russia has mobilized 300k troops and there are rumors that they'll mobilize another 400 to 600k soldiers, taking away that manpower advantage Ukraine had. They also bought millions of shells for pennies on the dollar and artillery is one of the few things thar kept them alive and somewhat balanced off the Ukrainian man power advantage so with in a year, they'll have both the manpower and artillery advantage.

In the long term, Ukraine needs to inflict 3 or 4 to 1 causalities against the Russians to maintain the war effort, it certainly doesn't look good for Ukraine if the causalities are somewhat equal and that's just the hard truth of the matter.

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TechyDad t1_ixng2he wrote

It doesn't matter how many soldiers Russia sends if they don't have weaponry, training, ammunition, food, etc.

There are many accounts of new Russian conscripts being given a week or less of training and then sent to the front lines with barely functioning weapons. Russia's top tank brigade - the one that supposedly was trained to go toe to toe with NATO forces - was routed so badly that they abandoned their tanks. (Well, what tanks weren't destroyed.)

Russia is having severe problems supplying their troops. If they can't fix this then it doesn't matter how many soldiers they send into combat. Those soldiers will get killed/captured by Ukrainian forces.

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Kidrellik t1_ixnhaau wrote

Dude, you've been on waaay to much Ukrainian propaganda on reddit if you really think that's true. Russia, the second largest military industrial complex in the world with enough backlog of Soviet gear to arm every citizen multiple times over and being the largest artillery army in the world, can't train, equip or have enough ammo for their soldiers? I mean come on dude, even you have to realize how little that makes sense considering it's been 8 months of war at this point and they haven't run out of anything.

Yea and Ukraine was tossing in 45 year old teachers with 5 days training into Severodonetsk to get blown apart by artillery. Mobilization is hard for everyone but Russia doesn't have America helping them out.

This was like 6 months ago and they did because they ran out of fuel because of bad initial planning. We're far beyond that stage at this point.

False. If you could feed, equip and train 99/100 troops but that 1 soldiers makes a video talking about not being trained or properly fed then doesn't mean the entire army has that problem. They also have winter to do all that as well.

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TechyDad t1_ixnqett wrote

This isn't Ukrainian propaganda. It's pretty well known facts. Russia's vehicles went out to battle with major, preventable issues due to poor maintenance due on large part to massive corruption in Russia. (Money earmarked for repairs was pocketed by various people along the way ) They were unable to provide a decent supply chain to their troops.

They are running low on munitions and weaponry to the point that they're taking WW2 era tanks out of mothballs and sending them to the field. The sanctions mean that Russia can't get the high tech parts they need for modern weaponry so they've been scavenging CPUs from washing machines and getting weapons from North Korea and Iran.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian troops have been training with NATO. NATO countries, like the UK, will take Ukrainian troops to their country (away from the conflict), train them for 6 months, and then send them back to Ukraine.

Russia has been losing territory quickly to Ukrainian forces. At this point, Russia's only hope is to bomb civilian infrastructure to try to break the country because they can't match up with the Ukrainian forces.

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Kidrellik t1_ixntp96 wrote

Dude, almost everything you just said is exactly Ukrainian propaganda lol. Russia sent out a bunch of vehicles with enough fuel and logistics for 3 days and about week into the invasion, a whole lot of them were abandoned because they had no fuel, hence the videos of Ukrainian tractors pulling them to Ukrainian lines. That issue is over now since they're now in it for the long haul.

What ww2 tank are they using? I've been following this war since like the beginning and the worst is some t 50s which were are previous generation tanks but still do the job of heavy Armour well enough. They would get torn apart by an Abrams but America isn't sending those to Ukraine since Ukraine, like Russia, is a Soviet army. And buying cheap drones and millions of shells from your allies isn't exactly anything new in warfare.

NATO has trained maybe 10 to 20k Ukrainian troops so far. Ukraine has an army of 600 to 700k. That's a drop in the bucket right there.

Russia has been losing territory because of the massive Ukrainian manpower advantage which has been taking heavy causalities because Russia still has the firepower and artillery advantage. But the problem is thar Ukraine has already mobilized just about every person they could, Russia has not.

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midnightJizzla t1_ixnprvb wrote

yep. That country is starting to look like a bombed out shithole. By the time "victory" comes around, who know what that place will look like.

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Proregressive t1_ixm8sul wrote

They leaked the evacuation option to soften the blow if it comes to that. Realistically, you can't build infrastructure faster than it can be destroyed so it is inevitable.

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