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DangerousBill t1_j6uc9lt wrote

So basically, economists are like weather forecasters. They can only explain an event after it happens. They have no predictive power at all.

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ButterPotatoHead t1_j6ui7y3 wrote

This is true, and, the stock market is a leading indicator, it represents people's beliefs and feelings about the near future. All last year everyone thought the near future was going to be terrible. Today, they think they near future might not be so bad. This seems to have changed almost exactly at the end of the year.

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Independent-Dog2179 t1_j6vb5a0 wrote

It represents wealthy people who owns most of the shares and firms. (Those with a bunch of capital) thr common man is as far removed as the moon is to earth

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ButterPotatoHead t1_j6wqz48 wrote

You can buy stocks with an extra $5. If you are in a 401k plan at work, you're buying stocks. I think you're being a little dramatic.

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MaverickBuster t1_j79n9er wrote

You think someone who's invested $5 and owns 0.000001% of company has any power compared to someone who's invested $100,000,000 and owns 2% of a company? It is the Uber wealthy who've invested much larger amounts into companies who have sway and influence.

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ButterPotatoHead t1_j7bb4uy wrote

I'm honestly trying to figure out what people are complaining about.

You can invest $100 in Amazon and watch it turn into $200 over time so you earned $100 by doing nothing but taking some risk. No, you don't have any influence over the company, but so what?

If there is some idea that only rich people can invest in stocks that is not true. You can invest an amount that is small by market standards but significant to your wealth and make a difference in your finances.

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PKanuck t1_j6uio64 wrote

Economists forecast GDP and inflation rates.

Market analysts, institutional investors forecast how markets may perform. The debt ceiling will have an impact on the markets. If it isn't raised it will be bad for markets, if it is raised it will be good.

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blahbleh112233 t1_j6unszv wrote

Yep, and the market will dip on the fear that we won't raise the debt ceiling. Which will never actually not happen.

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PKanuck t1_j6uocue wrote

And the dip will be quick and recovery slow

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ThellraAK t1_j6v11mm wrote

And if it gets close they can just strike a few trillion dollar coins and pay themselves.

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Drakkur t1_j6wuzv3 wrote

What’s your point? Economists don’t forecast stock markets, they forecast… economies.

If the market goes up due to a rate hike, it’s probably because the futures market was pricing in a higher hike than what actually happened. If you look at the rate hikes for 2022-2023 this hike is the lowest since March compared with an average hike between 50-75bp.

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Spoonfeedme t1_j6um6a2 wrote

An economist will tell you tomorrow why what they predicted yesterday didn't happen today.

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Mr-Logic101 t1_j6v6n4p wrote

Dude… if economists actually knew shit about the economy, they would all be filthy rich.

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