There are a couple of open fallacies in this that I need to address.

"Models are probabilistic": Incorrect. The majority of our guidance (including what you see above) is deterministic, governed complex differential equations. I'm building a statistical weather model at my job, so I'd hope I know the difference.

Skillful meteorologists understand the limitations of each guidance system, their biases, and make forecasts from there. One on display overnight was understanding how models fail to capture warm air advection and smaller features like robust dry air correctly. That's why you saw such a low forecast contrary to most others. Not only was it right, it wasn't aggressive enough but ultimately applied these principles.

Why did I not worry about a lot of wet snow? Simple: the snow growth sucked & the magnitude of warm air advection would easily overpower cold air, so the result would be a rapid transition to ice & rain. That minimizes power outages, which is what we saw.