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[deleted] t1_j5uq520 wrote

I'll follow the NWS guidelines instead of some random redditor posting cherry-picked model runs, thanks. https://www.weather.gov/gyx/weatherstory

If you turn out to be right, don't say I told you so. The models are probabilistic. Sometimes the contrarians are correct due to randomness.

It's probably going to be a mostly-north-of-Concord event, although all that icing before it turns to rain is going to make a mess everywhere. Also, do note that thousands of people in NH are still without power from the last storm, and this wet hot mess is really the last thing we need right now. These icy shitstorms are the fucking worst.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j5yvd9p wrote

There are a couple of open fallacies in this that I need to address.

"Models are probabilistic": Incorrect. The majority of our guidance (including what you see above) is deterministic, governed complex differential equations. I'm building a statistical weather model at my job, so I'd hope I know the difference.

Skillful meteorologists understand the limitations of each guidance system, their biases, and make forecasts from there. One on display overnight was understanding how models fail to capture warm air advection and smaller features like robust dry air correctly. That's why you saw such a low forecast contrary to most others. Not only was it right, it wasn't aggressive enough but ultimately applied these principles.

Why did I not worry about a lot of wet snow? Simple: the snow growth sucked & the magnitude of warm air advection would easily overpower cold air, so the result would be a rapid transition to ice & rain. That minimizes power outages, which is what we saw.

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[deleted] t1_j5yweq3 wrote

We got the 2-4" forecast by the NWS in my neck of the woods before the changeover to rain. I'm certain of it because I was out driving in it.

I don't pay much attention to the actors on TV trying to hype up ratings.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j5ywwyk wrote

I'd love to know which town, because some of the reports coming in from the White Mountains are even more lackluster than expected

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