averageduder t1_j6k0dxb wrote on January 30, 2023 at 9:42 PM

Reply to comment by Tullyswimmer in New Hampshire GOP governor says he’s considering 2024 White House bid by Jesuslovesthepackers

Disagree. What’s his lane? Maga isn’t voting for him. Moderates who care about education or abortion aren’t. And they basically competing for that small sliver that is outside there with others.

I’d be surprised, even in nh, if he polls above 5-6%

Tullyswimmer t1_j6ktbog wrote on January 31, 2023 at 12:59 AM

His performance in state-level elections would suggest otherwise. MAGA does vote for him, as do a lot of moderates. Real-life moderates, not Reddit "moderates" don't generally have a problem with the type of abortion legislation he's supported, and education is rapidly changing, look at Youngkin in Virginia and even DeSantis' "don't say gay" bill is fairly popular nationally.

If you think Sununu isn't capable of appealing to moderates and MAGA, you're wrong. He can and already does, as every election he's run in in the state shows.

averageduder t1_j6kyp77 wrote on January 31, 2023 at 1:39 AM

But he's not against any competition so how well he does is really pretty worthless. Who cares if he can edge out the Colin Van Osterns and beat up the Dan Feltes of the world. This guy barely beat Edelblut.

Whether he has a path in a crowded primary or a general is dramatically different than whether he can win, as an incumbent in a political dynasty, against the drek the NH dems are throwing.

I'd love to lay some odds on Sununu's 2024 polling. Looks like most sites have Trump and Desantis taking about 80% right now.

Sununu's path is hoping that at least 1 of them doesn't run. Unless that happens, he has about as much a chance as being the gop candidate as I do. I mean he doesn't even have money in the area code of these two, and we're just assuming that NH still has the first primary. If it gets flexed into 3rd/4th, then his chances go from like 2% to 0%.