Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

OkLime8702 t1_j0nhtr9 wrote

I really can’t wrap my head around it. What has happened to housing in the area is mind boggling since 2019. I think it’s a bubble that is about to burst but to be fair a ton of people have moved to Portsmouth and surrounding areas and it’s just not that big of a city so there are land constraints.

3

Jpf123 OP t1_j0nvca5 wrote

It’s so dark that “it’s a bubble” has become the hopeful cry of a generation plus of people.

Yet I hope you’re right

10

tiddervul t1_j0ragfy wrote

It’s pure supply and demand. The people who live in these towns do not want more housing build, especially anything a younger person and family can afford. So the zoning rules and permitting process is so difficult and costly that it doesn’t happen.

Why don’t they want young families? My tax bill is ~64% spent on schools. Every little cherub costs almost $20,000 per year. Much more if they have some special needs. A family with 3 kids will cost almost 3/4 million in current dollars through high school. That household will pay less than 10% of the costs with their tax bill and of course they also get roads, police, fire, dump / trash etc.

Towns are way better off attracting older empty nesters or a massive airbnb population who uses a lot less for the same tax payment.

2

OkLime8702 t1_j0rxihl wrote

Nobody wants to live in an Airbnb town either so that’s one thing. Secondly, yes it is supply and demand. 2021 and 2022 saw a massive multi year pull forward in demand while supply remained fix as it takes time to build supply. 2023 and 2024 will see a bullwhip effect of that which will be characterized by lower than average demand and finally the new supply coming to market.

1

OkLime8702 t1_j0nwf82 wrote

I’m by no means hoping but the evidence is plain as day when you dig into it empirically.

0

Fun-Peach-5056 t1_j0q8a08 wrote

From my experience, when rent got crazy in Mass I started seeing a lot of their license plates showing up as renters near me in south side Manchester. That caused a shortage of availability and the eventual price increases we see now. Also the low interest rates caused a lot of local businessmen to start buying up properties above the prices of individual buyers to either flip or rent at a premium

2