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BelichicksBurner t1_izbbd14 wrote

Reply to comment by SameOldiesSong in Sununu, GOP blast DNC demand that NH change primary law by IBlazeMyOwnPath

No, NH is a terrible outlier when it comes to primary data, which is the real reason they want the change. We're literally among the worst states in terms of that.

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SameOldiesSong t1_izbc3z0 wrote

What do you mean primary data? If you’re taking about racial demographics, you’re certainly right, though that doesn’t change the problems with the decision by the DNC.

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BelichicksBurner t1_izezgjg wrote

That's exactly what I'm saying. The real reason they're doing it is because NH primary voting data typically doesn't look anything like the national data. Campaigns are extremely data-centric and our data simply can't be trusted to hold up nationally. Look at the last two Dem primaries: Sanders smoked Clinton in 2016 and Biden didn't even crack the top 4 in 2020.

I personally think that historically we actually do pick the better candidate and are smarter than the average Dem voter, but because of that we don't always pick the one that's going to get the most votes in a primary. Sanders 100% beats Trump in 2016 and NH knew Biden wasn't the best choice in 2020. Either way it doesnt matter, the decision to do this isn't based on them actually thinking NH needs to change anything, they just don't want us going first anymore.

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SameOldiesSong t1_izf31x5 wrote

I see what you mean there. I think one big reason for the difference is that war chests and name recognition (both strengths of Clinton and Biden) don’t get a candidate as far in NH as they do in most other states. It’s probably the main reason I like NH going first: gives all candidates a pretty fair shake, even if they aren’t the richest or most well known.

Among the reasons DNC doesn’t want NH first, I suspect, is that NH is more likely to elevate a candidate not preferred by the DNC, relative to other states.

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