SameOldiesSong t1_izaxzrd wrote on December 7, 2022 at 7:47 PM

Reply to comment by BelichicksBurner in Sununu, GOP blast DNC demand that NH change primary law by IBlazeMyOwnPath

Oh we aren’t, the law doesn’t permit it. But that doesn’t solve the problem so much as change the nature of it.

Dems telling NH voters that they are unimportant to the party is not helpful when we have two blue senate seats that are vulnerable.

BelichicksBurner t1_izb15xc wrote on December 7, 2022 at 8:08 PM

NH isn't important in terms of the general election and let's be honest: we're a terrible choice for first-in-the-nation voting. Also as a lifelong NH resident...I could care less when we vote. I also think NH voters are pretty reasonable when it comes to voting for senators they think will go to work and get things done when they get to Washington. Can't imagine this will impact that.

SameOldiesSong t1_izb36ha wrote on December 7, 2022 at 8:21 PM

> NH isn't important in terms of the general election

It’s more important than South Carolina. NH is one of the few purple states that exist. SC is red.

> Can't imagine this will impact that.

I hope you are right, but I don’t see how you would be. Republicans are going to be the only show in town every presidential election. GOP will pour money into the state pushing GOP narratives. GOP candidates are going to be talking to voters and Dems will be absent. That alone helps push a state right. Dems are going to create a vacuum that GOP will happily fill. GOP primary money is going to create a larger network of organizers, while the Dem one atrophies. I think Shaheen and Hassan understand the threat this creates to their viability (as well as Dems at large) which is why you are hearing them speak out about this as they are.

BelichicksBurner t1_izbbd14 wrote on December 7, 2022 at 9:15 PM

No, NH is a terrible outlier when it comes to primary data, which is the real reason they want the change. We're literally among the worst states in terms of that.

SameOldiesSong t1_izbc3z0 wrote on December 7, 2022 at 9:20 PM

What do you mean primary data? If you’re taking about racial demographics, you’re certainly right, though that doesn’t change the problems with the decision by the DNC.

BelichicksBurner t1_izezgjg wrote on December 8, 2022 at 4:57 PM

That's exactly what I'm saying. The real reason they're doing it is because NH primary voting data typically doesn't look anything like the national data. Campaigns are extremely data-centric and our data simply can't be trusted to hold up nationally. Look at the last two Dem primaries: Sanders smoked Clinton in 2016 and Biden didn't even crack the top 4 in 2020.

I personally think that historically we actually do pick the better candidate and are smarter than the average Dem voter, but because of that we don't always pick the one that's going to get the most votes in a primary. Sanders 100% beats Trump in 2016 and NH knew Biden wasn't the best choice in 2020. Either way it doesnt matter, the decision to do this isn't based on them actually thinking NH needs to change anything, they just don't want us going first anymore.

SameOldiesSong t1_izf31x5 wrote on December 8, 2022 at 5:20 PM

I see what you mean there. I think one big reason for the difference is that war chests and name recognition (both strengths of Clinton and Biden) don’t get a candidate as far in NH as they do in most other states. It’s probably the main reason I like NH going first: gives all candidates a pretty fair shake, even if they aren’t the richest or most well known.

Among the reasons DNC doesn’t want NH first, I suspect, is that NH is more likely to elevate a candidate not preferred by the DNC, relative to other states.