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OldestPresidentEver t1_iwmmflp wrote

This is wild!

I'd be curious if anyone has calculated the odds of this happening.

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GraniteGeekNH OP t1_iwmxcap wrote

this isn't a case where you can "calculate the odds" since it's so dependent on variables of behavior, history, etc. - it's not an arithmetic problem

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OldestPresidentEver t1_iwn0fpp wrote

There are a finite number of votes, races and options so this can absolutely be calculated.

Behavior and history are irrelevant, it would be a calculation of "what are the odds of the results of this election coming out exactly as they have based on the possibilities".

That said, you may also be trying to bait me into actually determining that, which I will not 😁

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GeorgeSix t1_iwp8c8g wrote

If you model each race as a coin flip, there's a 3.99% chance of a 200-200 tie. (Much more likely than my intuitive guess.)

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GraniteGeekNH OP t1_iwqcd69 wrote

if you model each race as a coin flip then it's irrelevant to reality, which is the point I (clumsily) tried to make - it's arithmetically/statistically OK but says nothing whatsoever about how likely it is that the situation will occur in a real election involving real people.

This is the "spherical horse in a vacuum" situation: Reduce the problem's complexities to fit our ability to calculate.

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sheila9165milo t1_iwra2av wrote

Most likely. This is the kind of stuff that statisticians live for, lol.

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