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damnbeautiful t1_ivmt4g6 wrote

Basically sources predicting likely outcomes to get extra media attention. They might be right, they often use lots of data, exit polls, historic trends, all sorts of info. But they can also be wrong.

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sctlndjf t1_ivo8rd1 wrote

Depends on the news outlet. The AP is pretty conservative in its calls, even when they’re early like this, so they typically aren’t the ones to have to retract. That’s more often the news networks like CNN or Fox. Some outlets want the scoop and take more of a risk (calling at 80% likelihood or whatever) while others wait for 90 or 95% so they can present themselves as more reliable. Both are calling what’s likely, but in the former, every now and then you’ll get some races wrong. For the higher percentages it’s much more rare.

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