kearsargeII t1_iu49xew wrote on October 28, 2022 at 1:19 PM

Reply to comment by fins4ever in Kuster Trailing in New NHJournal Poll, With Hassan Tied and Leavitt Close - NH Journal by slimyprincelimey

Yeah, but NH-1 is a tossup district, and Pappas is doing about as good as he could do in that race as per that poll. Kuster has won by double digits in previous races, and other polls seem to support this. If NH-2 was leaning republican by that much, then both the senate and NH-1 should be blowout victories for republicans. That they are not suggests something weird is going on with demographics that they are predicting a crazy 11 point shift in lean in one race but basically nothing in the other when Kuster hasn’t had any big scandals and Burns isn’t really in the news enough for him to attract new voters.

fins4ever t1_iu4ba72 wrote on October 28, 2022 at 1:29 PM

Well the NH1 and NH2 sample might be significantly different. I would think that either the NH2 poll is being too generous, NH1 too harsh, or more likely probably both. It is certainly a bit odd. Maybe there could be an ideological shift in NH2 also? I know Republicans have made big inroads in the north country and the Claremont area the last few years

SkiingAway t1_iu4fs4b wrote on October 28, 2022 at 2:03 PM

> I know Republicans have made big inroads in the north country and the Claremont area the last few years

Not sure I agree with that regarding Sullivan County, but as reminder: You're talking about the two least-populous counties in the state (and who continue to lose population), home to only ~74,000 people and around 11% of NH-2's population.

If every single voter in Sullivan + Coos Counties in 2020 voted Republican....Kuster would likely still have won.

Also, with Grafton both growing and seemingly shifting further away from Republicans, I'd imagine the ideological balance of the 3 counties is either a wash or slight shift towards the Dems.

fins4ever t1_iu4gkxe wrote on October 28, 2022 at 2:09 PM

Honestly the senate race has had enough polling that I've got a handle on where it's at, but the house races feel like such a black box to me. No idea what's going on with them and I feel like the only way I'll find out is watching election returns in two weeks

SkiingAway t1_iu4h30y wrote on October 28, 2022 at 2:12 PM

I agree there's been a lack of polling of individual races in general - 538's quantified that a bit recently, too.

That said, in the absence of polling, I would typically put my money on the person who's won the last 5 times, especially since it's not like they've been close even in not great years for national Dems.

(And the Republicans haven't gone with a candidate that seems very likely to attract moderates).

fins4ever t1_iu4hf81 wrote on October 28, 2022 at 2:15 PM

I would definitely say Kuster is the favorite, but she could be in trouble if there's a landslide, which looks possible. Honestly to some extent Burns' lack of visibility has actually been a good thing for him. I imagine a number of voters might vote for him simply out of dissatisfaction with the incumbent party, knowing little about him personally