The Snow Hype Returns

Submitted by TheCloudBoy t3_117hwng in newhampshire

Are you ready for the next winter storm this Thursday? If you answered no, buckle up because our longer range guidance suggests much of March is cold & stormy.

In typical fashion with other storms in NH this winter, there is high uncertainty around what occurs a mere 72 hours from snow falling. Avoid the latest garbage Euro vs. GFS comparisons likely found elsewhere, here's what to take away as of Monday afternoon:

  1. A high impact winter storm is imminent Thursday & Thursday night for portions of NH.
  2. High uncertainty lingers as to where the stationary front initially lingers and how far north above-freezing air surges into New England. The northern (poleward) extent of these features will determine the location of the heavy snow (1.5"-2.5"/hr rates) and how much snow adds up from Concord/Claremont/Dover points south.
  3. Significant & spatially similar snow accumulations (8-12"+) are expected in/north of the heavy snow axis, where high snow ratios north will balance out lower ratio snow further south. Significant freezing rain accumulations are unlikely.
  4. I've drawn the most likely (as of this time) dominant precipitation type, which leverages a superensemble framework of available model forecasts while addressing systemic biases at this forecast time horizon.

https://preview.redd.it/733prpw86eja1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=cdace0558d6262a80b6e8b8b8c8a8e7dfae8db21

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Comments

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Impriel t1_j9bwv76 wrote

Cloud boy quickly becoming my favorite posts on this sub

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9cgyuv wrote

I am humbled šŸ«”

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Impriel t1_j9cmmdc wrote

No sir WE are humbled. Thank you for your service

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Acanthaceae_Square t1_j9d7wmm wrote

Cloudboy, is there supposed to be snow tomorrow in Strafford county? My weather app shows nothing but I keep seeing posts

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9ddb5g wrote

There will be two shots at it! The first is light & right at the morning commute in/south of Durham. The second is more interesting and moves through just after sunset ahead of a vorticity plume, I like up to 0.5" out of that round

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druebleam t1_j9e9qma wrote

If you donā€™t watch Ryan Hall Yā€™all he does great long range forecasting. He also happens to love snow. He had another video talking about the arctic air mass splitting up and causing a cold and potentially snowy March. Letā€™s hope!

I highly recommend watching his channel. His shows wonā€™t be about NH or New England weather, unless there is a notable weather event in the area.

https://youtu.be/T_baO7NbVt0

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9fb1tq wrote

Yeah the pattern in March is starting to look really interesting for the Northeast U.S., including all of New England. Models are hinting at a retrograding ridge into Greenland and a second persistent ridge in the Eastern Pacific through Alaska. That combination should squeeze much colder air in Canada south and provide the necessary blocking for our more classic, slow-moving Northeast U.S. snow storms.

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Doug_Shoe t1_j9c48iw wrote

running to the store right now to buy bread and milk

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Bardonious t1_j9c531q wrote

Buy it all, and donā€™t forget toilet paper. All of the toilet paper.

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Doug_Shoe t1_j9c5etq wrote

shoot. Now I have to run back to the store and buy out the TP aisle.

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skudak t1_j9d7sx7 wrote

Nothing like a good ole New England bowl of milk & bread šŸ˜‹

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BuckyMcFly99 t1_j9byxhs wrote

Cloud Boy don't miss

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9chpie wrote

I hope the snow forecast coming out shortly is a hit too šŸ˜¬

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bsmith696969 t1_j9cj26p wrote

There's Fritz Weatherbee and then there's Cloud Boy. You sir, are a true New Hampshire treasure.

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movdqa t1_j9bwz4r wrote

60 degrees outside right now. Going to go running in shorts in a little while.

Snow? It's already been unusually warm for winter and it's 2/3rds over. One-third with some snow would be fine. No biggie.

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MagicMyxies t1_j9c3duq wrote

Im from maine but I still love your contributions I get a lot out of it

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9chgdy wrote

I'm glad! The company I work for forecasts for a variety of companies, DPWs, etc. in ME, so I'm closely following this in your neck of the woods as well!

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Jesusisajedi t1_j9c2h9s wrote

An annoying person once told me ā€œstatistically we get the most snow in Marchā€¦ā€

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underratedride t1_j9bwith wrote

Driving from north country to northern ma and back Thursday. Is fml still a thing? Because fml.

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Curious_Buffalo_1206 t1_j9cyx7x wrote

You know all those highway signs they have up that say some variation of ā€œwinter storm, plan ahead?ā€ Theyā€™re talking to you.

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underratedride t1_j9d1r9z wrote

I want no part of this. Wedding nonsense.

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Curious_Buffalo_1206 t1_j9d32o0 wrote

Find a hotel roomā€¦

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underratedride t1_j9dczxx wrote

Overnight sitter, hotel cost. Wedding already expensive enough. Just going to have to take it slow.

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Curious_Buffalo_1206 t1_j9et7rv wrote

Car accidents are a lot more expensive than a hotel. Iā€™m sure youā€™re a competent winter driver, but Massholes arenā€™t.

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sqwunk t1_j9hdybp wrote

Most of the snow is dropping overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning

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DeerFlyHater t1_j9bw3xk wrote

Yay, heaviest snow band.

That should clean things up quite a bit. The current six ish inches is looking super dingy right now.

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fuzzykittyfeets t1_j9f972d wrote

Last winter my area had a month or so when a dusting would fall every couple nights. It kept everything so fresh and pretty, didnā€™t impact anything at all because it was always overnight and just a dustingā€” warming your car up is enough to totally clean it and the roads are dry again by daylight.

I wouldnā€™t mind winter nearly so much if that happened more. Not enough snow that you have to actually do something about it, just enough to cover up the melted brown refrozen sludge.

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Patsfan618 t1_j9cl5ec wrote

Double it and give it to Maine.

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ekob711 t1_j9cg4m4 wrote

My wife is hiking to an overnight hut in the whites Friday then back down Saturday. Iā€™m starting to wonder if that makes any sense.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9cgt7f wrote

Well given residual snow, gusty NW winds above the tree line, wind chills falling below -20Ā°F in the afternoon, & trails potentially hard to navigate after fresh snow, my initial thought is she should wait. A few questions:

  1. What trail will she be on and what's the hut she's trying to reach?

  2. What time is she starting the hike on Friday?

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ekob711 t1_j9cgzyf wrote

Will find out shortly!

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ekob711 t1_j9cu7jx wrote

The big problem i see is that carter notch hut is unheated!

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9czldg wrote

If she and her group are adequately prepared, then I think that section of the hike isn't impossible. My main worry is actually blowing snow reducing visibility & obscuring trail markers. The girl Sotelo who perished on the Franconia Ridge succumbed to that exact issue.

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ekob711 t1_j9czwvn wrote

What about staying overnight in an unheated hut in -12 temp?

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9d0b7a wrote

I mean, I wouldn't place that high up on my list of things to do either. She's better off going late Saturday into Sunday when Sunday's highs climb 20 degrees higher

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ekob711 t1_j9d0yfy wrote

Thanks so much! I think Iā€™ve talked her into picking another night.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9d1e28 wrote

This is the kind of reasonable intelligence that continues to make the Granite State the smartest in the entire country!

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TJsName t1_j9d6h14 wrote

Yeah, 19 Mile Brook is not really a wind/visibility concern. The cold at the hut is though, so definitely make sure you have warm enough gear for the bunkhouse.

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kelvin_bot t1_j9cgu9g wrote

-20Ā°F is equivalent to -28Ā°C, which is 244K.

^(I'm a bot that converts temperature between two units humans can understand, then convert it to Kelvin for bots and physicists to understand)

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ekob711 t1_j9cjd1b wrote

Carter notch so not above tree like. Taking ā€œ19 Miles Trail.ā€ But itā€™s about 4 miles to the hut. Will hit trail around noon.

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NewPhoenix77 t1_j9cnrmc wrote

Thanks for this. I wasnā€™t trying to find out my vehicle situation for that morning

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Sweet-Palpitation473 t1_j9d8u12 wrote

Yooo thanks for this. Hopefully I'll be avoiding the heavy snowfall. I work outside and my commute isn't fun either so I'm usually on Team Snow Sucks

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Ok_Low_1287 t1_j9dcl84 wrote

So NOAA forecasts should be ignored? Donā€™t they use the GFS?

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thishasntbeeneasy t1_j9csedr wrote

This fares well for my desire to go xc ski at Gunstock or Wolfeboro again. I haven't tried Harris in ME either, but might be enough snow there too

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simonhunterhawk t1_j9dtei6 wrote

Thanks for this, this will be our first winter storm ever since moving from Florida. We are in Laconia so lucky us! I guess Iā€™ll be making a quick grocery run in the morning so thereā€™s absolutely no need to go anywhere.

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daymuub t1_j9eudp5 wrote

It's snowing right now

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aenteus t1_j9ewl3u wrote

Very much so. In fact, I woke up and had to check what day it is.

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letsgouda t1_j9f0gjc wrote

I'm not sure if I'm in love with Cloud Boy or just want to BE Cloud Boy

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Politikr t1_j9fbsqs wrote

I hope this is Eric Weglarz.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9fdcks wrote

I think you're the fifth person to guess that haha, what makes you say that?

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kitchinsink t1_j9fbtxu wrote

Which model is your favorite for snow? I'm always swapping around and secretly dreaming that the HRRR Kuchera comes true, lol.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9fd8c6 wrote

Ahhh the Kuchera ratio lol. That's a good question! My answer is no one model individually, though I do have a preferred model forecast for snow called positive snow depth change, or PSDC.

PSDC accounts for surface temperature, snow growth, precipitation types, compaction, etc. to provide a more realistic representation of how much snow a person will measure. When you compare the 12Z HRRR Kuchera & PSDC data, it should become immediately apparent that there's a notable difference in the Lakes Region where above-freezing air may surge all the way north to. The snow ratios in the White Mountains north of this heavy snow band will be pretty impressive, I can easily see 12-16" above 1,500 feet

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kitchinsink t1_j9fddfy wrote

The Kuchera ratio is a good time, but never the truth, hehe.

Good to know. Thanks for the analysis!

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RiverGreen7535 t1_j9euway wrote

I bet everyone who has a plow truck already has the coffee brewing, full tanks of gas, and the strobes are already on!

I've been feeling bad for all the entrepreneurs in NH,VT, and ME. because so many depend on the snow as income. From skiers, snowmaking, sled dogs, snowshoeing, etc. I hope March brings them all some much needed income.

Originally coming from a small North Woods community who grew up in a family owned restaurant no snow = no money. I hope the ā„ļø gives them a boost

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exitaurus t1_j9eyk7t wrote

šŸ«”šŸ«”

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Braesto t1_j9f542m wrote

Cloud boy, bless me with some Massachusetts weather updates.

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inoxfrost t1_j9f9w3t wrote

Time to hike the Whites again.

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redditthrower888999 t1_j9fb0wm wrote

I'm still holding out hope for snow. Really disappointed to see this possibly turning into another wintry mix / sleet storm.

At least the ski resorts will get the snow.

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KrissaKray t1_j9fd8wt wrote

I brought my dog out at 4am in a tanktop, PJ pants and flip flops. I woke back up at 645 to shower and go to work without looking outside and there was a major ground cover of snow. And then to see 8"+ tomorrow? YEESH what is this weather? lol

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9fhnyv wrote

The perks of a pseudo-stationary snow band with higher snow ratios! I'm not sure which outlet is giving you a forecast of 8" for Thursday, but unless you live in the Whites it's best to totally ignore that trash forecast (very likely the European operational) and stick with my outlook here. As expected, the majority of guidance now favors warm air even further north and brings rain into most of southern NH, we'll be lucky to squeeze out 3-4" south.

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KrissaKray t1_j9fi0hc wrote

Weather channel as of this very moment (10:30am) has Bedford for 5"-8" for Weds night and 1"-3" for Thursday AM. I guess we will see!

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CBKritter t1_j9fu0a0 wrote

Can't wait for the small nightmare patch of the storm that's gonna tear apart Dunbarton, Goffstown and New Boston like last time the up and vanish the second it gets near Weare and Bow lol

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Upset-Jellyfish1 t1_j9g26bo wrote

Takeaways:

  • there will be snow
  • ice less likely
  • Google doesnā€™t have a simple definition of super-ensemble

Thanks for the deets @cloudboy!

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COVID_2019 t1_j9eyqhc wrote

Jealous. We're supposed to get a coating to rain down here in MA. I think the news said we are about 28 inches below average for snowfall this year.

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poopdick72 t1_j9btpgr wrote

Thereā€™s going to be so much snow the next week. Climate change!!

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