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phoebe7439 t1_ja9ekgc wrote

The 10:1 Ratio is just not a fun model to use, the Kuchera Ratio tends to play nicer in my experience. Either way, predicting snowfall totals using solely these maps often does over-forecast for many reasons, especially the low resolution on these longer-range models you're using and the fact that not all snow that falls will stick.

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As for what the broadcast media says, a lot of that depends on who the on-air met will be for that show, as they tend to make their own graphs and may interpret something differently or have their own model preferences, etc. The NWS will often (but not always) be more reliable since they'll have teams working on each forecast.

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TLDR: Snow is hard to forecast!

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[deleted] OP t1_ja9jwkl wrote

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phoebe7439 t1_ja9lvhw wrote

Looking into models is awesome! My one recommendation is to always compare the results afterward using a spreadsheet or something like that. Really helps show which models are biased toward certain styles of storms.

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[deleted] OP t1_ja9meb6 wrote

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Curious_Buffalo_1206 t1_jaab5lh wrote

Sounds like a nightmare to get properly labeled data… those NWS “trained spotter” reports would only go so far. Taken at different times, at inconsistent locations, tricky to account for drift and aspect.

If you know anything about the shenanigans Killington pulls with their snow stake, the flaws here would be very obvious. They report from a spot on the mountain that is not representative at all — the snow piles up there twice as deep as elsewhere. Their snow stake is a dirty liar.

Also, the best model this winter will probably be very different from the best model in an El Niño year.

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phoebe7439 t1_jaad694 wrote

ASOS comes in clutch here, when I was running the spreadsheet I only tracked the forecast and real numbers from towns with ASOS or COCORAHS stations

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[deleted] OP t1_jaadq73 wrote

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phoebe7439 t1_jaarcme wrote

I haven't seen any for snow since that's not my strong suit, but I've seen it a couple time for severe thunderstorm events up here

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phoebe7439 t1_ja9mry9 wrote

I've thought about doing that for a while, but I've lacked in my tracking of the models the last few storms unfortunately so my data is a bit further behind than I'd like

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