Submitted by [deleted] t3_11djrbq in newhampshire
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Submitted by [deleted] t3_11djrbq in newhampshire
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Why hello haha, I hope I can be of some assistance here! So a few thoughts:
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Yeah I'm very interested in this as well! It's consistently not been too keen on this inverted trough taking shape & lingering, which is more or less half the puzzle to getting these bursts of snow going.
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I poked my head in to see if u/cloudboy had weighed in here.
That user seems to have no records of posts or interactions…
Whoops. Wrong guy. Paging u/TheCloudBoy
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You want to see downplaying, check the Apple Weather app.
Says I'm supposed to get 1.4" here by Squam Lake. NWS says 6-7.
I'll know Wednesday when I wake up.
The 10:1 Ratio is just not a fun model to use, the Kuchera Ratio tends to play nicer in my experience. Either way, predicting snowfall totals using solely these maps often does over-forecast for many reasons, especially the low resolution on these longer-range models you're using and the fact that not all snow that falls will stick.
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As for what the broadcast media says, a lot of that depends on who the on-air met will be for that show, as they tend to make their own graphs and may interpret something differently or have their own model preferences, etc. The NWS will often (but not always) be more reliable since they'll have teams working on each forecast.
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TLDR: Snow is hard to forecast!
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Looking into models is awesome! My one recommendation is to always compare the results afterward using a spreadsheet or something like that. Really helps show which models are biased toward certain styles of storms.
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Sounds like a nightmare to get properly labeled data… those NWS “trained spotter” reports would only go so far. Taken at different times, at inconsistent locations, tricky to account for drift and aspect.
If you know anything about the shenanigans Killington pulls with their snow stake, the flaws here would be very obvious. They report from a spot on the mountain that is not representative at all — the snow piles up there twice as deep as elsewhere. Their snow stake is a dirty liar.
Also, the best model this winter will probably be very different from the best model in an El Niño year.
ASOS comes in clutch here, when I was running the spreadsheet I only tracked the forecast and real numbers from towns with ASOS or COCORAHS stations
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I haven't seen any for snow since that's not my strong suit, but I've seen it a couple time for severe thunderstorm events up here
I've thought about doing that for a while, but I've lacked in my tracking of the models the last few storms unfortunately so my data is a bit further behind than I'd like
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No offense, OP... but I'm just here to see if u/TheCloudBoy chimes in.
See above for some of my thoughts, I remain humbled 🫡
Eh, it seems pretty minor. Got plenty of wood and soup.
Yum!! Wood soup is the best soup
Wood soup is great with some shaved truffle.
I love u/TheCloudBoy even my husband demands for his updates
You're too kind, seriously I'm humbled 🫡
Boats_are_fun t1_ja9ovjo wrote
Paging u/cloudboy
Edit: u/TheCloudBoy