I think he’s building momentum. He first stood out to me with Set it Up, and I remember being pleasantly surprised at him getting good reviews/recognition which is not a given for a ‘straightforward’ (but well executed) romcom. Top Gun Maverick has clearly nudged him that level higher and I think both his performance and the backstory to him getting the role (auditioned for Rooster; didn’t get it but Cruise/Kosinski liked him so much they essentially gave him a new role) really boosts the idea that he’s an actor with charisma to burn.

He also seems to have a very likeable offscreen personality which is increasingly helpful. I’ve not seen Devotion yet but if it’s as good as you say, then I strongly suspect he’ll go from strength to strength and not just be a flash in the pan. As someone else mentioned, he has a friendship with Richard Linklater and recently co-wrote and produced a film with him; a collaborator of that quality is a pretty strong sign.