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>People will leave. It's how many is the question and what income level.

They may move to one of the towns in e.g. TN I'm familiar with large plots of multimillion-dollar homes on the outskirts, meanwhile the town center is still dead and boarded up, and the trailer parks still full.

Unfortunately simple environmental exposure to the heavenly radiant glow of the very well-to-do residing nearby, a thriving local economy does not make. I live in one of the wealthiest areas of the state, median income near $150,000 and watched five restaurants in town go out of business in eight years. A thousand millionaires (at least!) with at least one residence within five miles couldn't save them. Well, maybe they just had bad food..

But a good rule-of-thumb is the super-rich tend to be super-selective about how they spend their money, and the New England variety of super-rich tends to be more of a cheapskate than average.

>One guy making $50M a year and moving to Florida costs MA $2.5M a year in lost revenue.

And the chances he would have ever set foot in my business to spend a dime are asymptotically zero, and as you say the state already has a surplus.

Aside from the possible localized reduction in heavenly radiant glow (and there are so many millionaires in my town the glow keeps me up at night, sometimes, it sounds like angels singing 'aaaaahhhh') I'm not concerned over his absence.