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xander_C t1_j4c7g6x wrote

If the Japanese managed to keep the rest of China in a perpetual civil war, maybe.

If the rest of China managed to consolidate, unlikely.

The scenario is complicated by the fact that the mere presence of the Japanese served as somewhat of a unifying presence. And if I remember correctly, the Chinese at the time actively worked to keep Japan from sitting back and consolidating. I think I recall hearing somewhere that the Nationalists hit the Japanese in Shanghai specifically to overextend them, but if someone can speak to that with more authority I would appreciate it.

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Irichcrusader t1_j4ddyc9 wrote

> I think I recall hearing somewhere that the Nationalists hit the Japanese in Shanghai specifically to overextend them, but if someone can speak to that with more authority I would appreciate it.

By no means an expert, but I'm currently reading China's War with Japan 1937 to 1945, by Rana Mitter, and that's pretty much what the author said about the battle of Shanghai, it was an additional front to tie up the Japanese and show them that China was prepared to fight. This was important because the Japanese were already advancing rapidly in the north. Chang clearly put a lot of importance on the Shanghai front since he committed his best trained troops to it, and they took appalling loses.

What was most interesting for me to learn is that the Japanese, after the Marco Polo Bridge incident, were not expecting much resistance and thought it would be a repeat of when they seized Manchuria without a fight. That China resisted really baffled and surprised them. They didn't even formally declare war on China. In fact, as late as the fall of Nanjing, the war was still being referred to in Japanese circles as "The China Incident." Chinese resistance and the loses they were inflicting on Japan also caused rage and anger among Japanese troops, which was likely a factor that caused the Rape of Nanjing.

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xander_C t1_j4dw97h wrote

Thanks! That matches what I remember, but it's been a long time since I read anything about that front and I didn't want to make a claim I couldn't substantiate.

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Adrax334 t1_j5d4w2z wrote

It is also worth mentioning that much of China's more modern and trade industries were based in Shanghai. It was a very,very important economic hub for Chiang's nationalists. One that he threw his best troops at in order to try to preserve.

But also it was a fight within sight of the world. Shanghai was a modern city by Chinese terms and it was one with an International Settlement that could actually show themselves off to the world.

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