NorthernInsomniac t1_iznul0c wrote on December 10, 2022 at 2:40 PM

I wonder what it would have done to the Nazi war buildup if in 1938 Czechoslovakia decided to fight for the Sudetenland, despite being abandoned by France and Britain at the Munich conference. Instead of getting the entire Czech arsenal intact, much if not most of it would have been lost to combat or sabotage. Add to that the materiel and manpower losses on the German side, how long would it take for Hitler to be ready to invade Poland?

DonkeyDonRulz t1_izo4rog wrote on December 10, 2022 at 3:58 PM

I have a memory of reading somewhere that a coup would have happened, before an invasion. Like General Beck and some other guys were all set to do the coup, until they heard Chamberlain was coming back to Munich. I think Munich was the third attempt to resolve with diplomacy, after another trip failed ( bad gotesburg?, sorry for spelling...I only listen to history audiobooks to help me sleep).

I believe some of the surviving generals testified that if Munich hadn't happened, Hitler wouldn't have backed down, and the plan to depose him would have gone forward. Of course, these men were also trying to live through Nuremberg, so their honesty and reliability is questionable.

DonkeyDonRulz t1_izo7e30 wrote on December 10, 2022 at 4:17 PM

Also, Sudetenland was like the mountainous defensive part of Czechoslovakia. Germany in 1938 may have taken some serious time to overcome, and with Britain and France on the other side of a 2 front war, Germany would have had it's hands full, and that's 1938 Germany, only 5 years into Hitler's reign that started in 1933.

SirOutrageous1027 t1_izyseyz wrote on December 12, 2022 at 9:06 PM

I suspect German blitz tactics that overwhelmed France and Poland would have similarly prevailed against the Czech. Czechoslovakia is a lot smaller than Poland and it's landlocked so there's no reinforcements coming in. Sure it's mountainous, but it's small - heck it made short work of Yugoslavia which was all mountains and much bigger.

You don't really have Britain and France on the other side - not without a naval invasion or violating Dutch sovereignty. Otherwise you've just got the Maginot crossing. And frankly, given how non-aggressive France was when Germany invaded Poland, I doubt they would have been more aggressive with the Czechs. Though a more aggressive push by the French would have been a lot more interesting. German military leaders feared a French invasion when the forces were split in Poland.

We heard about potential military coups when he marched into the Rhineland and when he threatened Czechoslovakia. Both were due to fears of France. It's possible that basically any time before the Fall of Paris if the war started the go poorly, that would've been it. But victories kept Hitler in power and the military appeased.

DonkeyDonRulz t1_izzr4nz wrote on December 13, 2022 at 1:08 AM

I think I read somewhere that much of the heavy equipment used to take Poland and France was in Czech hands at the beginning of 1938. The Skoda works was a huge munitions plant that also changed hands without a shot being fired.

As I recall, the book argument went like so: capturing that equipment through war would have cost both German and Czech losses, whereas just turning materiel over to Germany strengthened then with no attritional loss of equipment, Czech or Nazi. Hitler increased his armament something like 25%, and picked up the factories producing heavy artillery, some 2 years before he invades France. The gain in knowledge, existing equipment, and factory capacity was an advantage that builds over the years, with the diplomatic resolution to Munich. If he had taken, say 15% material losses, in destroying half the Czech forces and only captures sabotaged factories, his army is not 125% or 150% in 1940, but 85% of it's 1938 strength. Do Poland and France fare better against that ? Does Poland soften it's diplomatic stance, after seeing Czechoslovakia get run over? Does it push the larger war back 12 to 18 months to where Stalin wakes up and starts prepping?

You're right about Hitler accumulating victories, in 1940. But 1938 was a different world. Hitler's only foreign victory before 1938 was the Rhineland annexation of 1936. Anschluss preceded Munich in 1938 spring.. Both areas were German speaking, and arguably more German than any Czech or Polish province. Czechoslovakia and Munich were the first conquests of a not-so completely German speaking area, and that Hitler getting away with it, basically scot-free, began that pile of foreign policy victories that accumulated until 1941. But prior to Munich no one knew all that was coming. France had alliances with the Little Entente countries (Balkans, Romania, Czechoslovakia) so technically it was more obligated to fight for the Czechs in 38 than the Poles in39. I mean that's why French pressured the Czechs into Munich. It wasn't worth a war, but their treaties had already committed them to one, if the Czechs fought. Better to talk the Czechs down.

I know why historians hate counterfactuals,lol.

I do like the inter war period. It is so full of the little " if only .." situations that make you think about t the carry on effects.

shantipole t1_izqcxyq wrote on December 11, 2022 at 1:39 AM

IIRC, there was a plan for a coup against Hitler if there had been any resistance to the re/occupation of Alsace and Lorraine. But the French backed down; so the Germans didn't launch their coup.

SirOutrageous1027 t1_izytj9s wrote on December 12, 2022 at 9:13 PM

>I believe some of the surviving generals testified that if Munich hadn't happened, Hitler wouldn't have backed down, and the plan to depose him would have gone forward. Of course, these men were also trying to live through Nuremberg, so their honesty and reliability is questionable.

And they had similar ideas when remilitarizing the Rhineland.

I don't think their reliability is questionable. The military was a major arm of pre-Nazi German politics. And they were tentative of losing another war so soon after World War 1.

The issue was that France kept backing down. Even when Germany invaded Poland and France declared war, France didn't actually do anything. German generals were fearful of the French pushing through the western border while they were in Poland, and basically got lucky that didn't happen.

Then when they blitzed through Netherlands, Belgium, and France, the military leaders calmed down a lot since basically it all worked out.

But at any point pre-1940 if things went south and it looked like WW1 all over again, the military very likely would have couped Hitler.