TotallyInOverMyHead t1_iy1dahe wrote
Reply to comment by thedivinemonkey298 in On April 2, 1941, a Japanese foreign minister asked Pope Pius XII to speak to U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt, so as to avert "a war of mutual destruction” by marketrent
It would have worked if any of the following would have happened:
- kill/sink all U.S. Carriers (4x) in their berths, or
- have the carrier strike group include an invasion force and take Hawaii, or
- destroy the Fuel Depots on Hawaii, or
- Stick around for more than 3 attack runs and kill the remaining 4 carriers while at sea.
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As such history has been written and one only speaks Japanese in the U.S. for fun.
TheMormonJosipTito t1_iy1fn1a wrote
Even if they had sunk all the carriers it only would have bought them a few months. U.S. naval industrial capacity was leagues ahead of what Japan could produce and they would have been outgunned sooner or later. Really the only path for a win in the pacific was for the U.S. to decide it wasn’t worth it, though even still Japan would have collapsed from resource shortages and the later Soviet invasion eventually.
ppitm t1_iy1g1f3 wrote
Yeah, sinking carriers in their berths means that the flight crews probably survive. The U.S. would have just lost a few additional islands before building more carriers with a lot of pissed-off aviators on board.
SolomonBlack t1_iy1lpb7 wrote
I mean if they really took Hawaii I could see that stretching out to years because the Pacific is the biggest thing on Earth and ships only carried so much coal.
Yet for much the same reason I doubt Japan could have seriously taken and held Hawaii while doing all the other smashing and grabbing they needed to do. If they had the resources for that they wouldn’t have needed the war in the first place.
chronoboy1985 t1_iy1zzbi wrote
They would’ve had to constantly bomb every naval construction yard, dry dock and plane factory in the country to keep them from spitting out planes and ships, which would’ve been suicidal given the insane speed the US was pumping out war planes alone.
-heathcliffe- t1_iy26ivz wrote
Shit we were even building ships in the great lakes, unless Canada joins the axis, there is zero chance in shutting down America’s ww2 shipyards.
SolomonBlack t1_iy2cgjo wrote
A navy sails upon its stomach.
Every day underway appreciably depletes your stores. Once upon a time I could probably tell you how many weeks since we did UNREP by what sauces the galley had left. A1 was gone first and by like week three even the ketchup started disappearing. Somehow never the 57 sauce though.
Anyways point being no matter how much you build its got to sail across the Pacific to actually do any good. And the farther you have to go without a friendly harbor to drop into for resupply and repair the more problems you will have. It may not stop you completely but your logistical situation is always paramount.
Not for nothing did the US adopt the strategy of island hopping, instead of just building up a big force to sail into Tokyo Bay like our name was Perry.
-heathcliffe- t1_iy265xu wrote
They had no intention to take Hawaii, the attack on pearl harbor was an extreme strain on their resources, an invasion was literally impossible.
raziel1012 t1_iy25nr2 wrote
Their initial strategy was exactly to buy those months and then heavily fortify the islands and have a strong defensive area set up by the time US had built up its navy again. (Aka what you said: make it less worth it for US) They surely would be outgunned in the longer term, but they were hoping to make the mid term gain strong and force US to the negotiating table. Would it have worked? Who knows.
slicerprime t1_iy2c93k wrote
>Would it have worked?
No.
As has been said elsewhere, the scale and pace of US military production at the time was just too strong. That "long term" you mention would probably have been very short. Far too short for a "mid term gain" of drawing the US to the negotiating table. The US reaction would have been the same as it was, only probably even more pissed off.
TotallyInOverMyHead t1_iy3yty6 wrote
The long term would have included a collapsed Britain and a German Soviet Union, maybe even a Japanse Australia, at least in the minds of the Japanese.
Drs83 t1_iy1n9ik wrote
None of those would have resulted in Japanese victory. They would have prolonged the conflict a bit but Japan never had any chance of defeating the USA unless the USA just gave up.
TotallyInOverMyHead t1_iy3xu4m wrote
> but Japan never had any chance of defeating the USA
Correct.
It was all about delaying and holding the Americans in the pacific. If any of my bullet points above would have been achieved it would have made America shift focus from the Atlantic to the pacific in order to secure the homeland.
That would have spelled doom for Britain (), that only held on by a thread due to American Lend lease - and the Soviets (that were supplied 400k jeeps/Trucks, 8k tractors, 13k tanks, 14k planes, 350 locomotives, 1.5mil blakets, 30 mil boots, 4.5mil tons of food via Iran [likely unaffected], Vladivostok [likely affected] and Archangel/Murmansk [likely affected]),
Not being able to control the pacific for a couple of months also would have spelled doom for the chinese that where supplied via the pacific (about 1/10th of what Russia received). And have delayed/scrapped operations in SE Asia, dependant on how far along the Japanase would have made it.
It is quite easy to look at this with hindsight, taking industrial figures into account and forgetting about the phsycological effect of having the enemy in your backyard, claiming your dog as their own.
Drs83 t1_iy5zk1u wrote
The Japanese strategy at the time was built on the idea that they would win a decisive navel battle which would cause the United States to just decide it wasn't worth it and they'd quit. Even after Pearl Harbor they were trying to accomplish this through 1942 - 1943 when it finally dawned on the few reasonable individuals in leadership that they were going to lose.
The Japanese really had no intention of working with the Germans to accomplish much of anything and didn't really concern themselves with what was happening in Europe. The United States didn't use military force in Europe until Germany declared war on them. Some would even wonder if Germany hadn't declared war if the USA would have ever sent troops over. Even before Stalingrad, the Japanese were under the correct assumption that the Germans were not going to find success against the Russians. They were very resistant to offering any military support that might bring the Soviets into the conflict.
The Japanese simply made a wrong assumption about the military dedication of the United States once sovereign territory had been attacked. There were more than a few reasonable individuals in the Japanese government who tried desperately to dissuade Hideki Tōjō's hawkish desire to neutralize American holdings. The reality of the situation is that if the Japanese had not attacked any US holdings in the Pacific, the United States probably wouldn't have been drawn into al-out war and things would have gone better for the Japanese.
EletricDice t1_iy1sj1g wrote
How are the Japanese going to supply an invasion force in Hawaii? Admiral Nagumo was worried that if he didn't start back after the 2nd wave he would have to scuttle some destroyers due to lack of fuel.
If Nagumo does a third wave his pilots have to land at night, of which they are not trained to do so. If he loses a quarter of his pilots he can't replace then with equal quality. He basically loses a carrier or two due to not having pilots. If its a disaster he might not have enough power to project meaningful air power at sea. Several planned invasions would have to be scrapped.
Destroying the fuel depots or sinking the carriers buys time, but neither are going to be long term game changers. The US can replace the fuel, and the US built (many) more ships from Pear Harbor to 1945 then Japan built plus its pre war navy.
chronoboy1985 t1_iy1zjq1 wrote
It wouldn’t have worked no matter what they did unless they could cripple American industrial capacity, which would’ve required a very misguided invasion attempt. Their entire rationale was gambling that Americans wouldn’t have the stomach for a long war and would sue for peace once they lost the upper hand. Even had they decimated Hawaii, it would’ve just been a setback. Japan simply spread itself far too thin.
vidivicivini t1_iy1f2va wrote
It would have worked in the short term but it would have set up a reckoning had the US been forced to accept a temporary defeat.
Every-Citron1998 t1_iy1li8h wrote
A more successful Pearl Harbor only delays the inevitable. Japan was wrong that attacking the British and Dutch would lead to war with America as there was no American appetite to declare war to protect European colonies.
raziel1012 t1_iy25uti wrote
On the other hand, US had already told Japan to leave Manchuria.
SuperSocrates t1_iy1ltin wrote
They were never planning to invade and take over the country…
Doberman7290 t1_iy21nu3 wrote
It would have never worked. You know it , I Know it , the world knows it.
Your four bullet points are funny - none could have been accomplished.
When the Japanese Navy stood toe to toe with the USA they went to the bottom.
That is history.
raziel1012 t1_iy26cvp wrote
Nagumo's decision to only stick to two waves wasn't unfounded. His losses, comparing the second wave to first wave, mounted significantly as US' air defenses were coming on line.
SuppliceVI t1_iy2ibmz wrote
It would have slowed the war by at best a few months.
Japanese industry was basically non-existent, and US industry generated a Naval force that multitudes stronger than Japan's in very short time.
Japan was entirely in over their heads and even if the entirety of the US Navy was lost, the end result would have been the same.
Drs83 t1_iy64qks wrote
Some people don't realize just how much larger the US navy was in 1945 than the Japanese navy ever was. It was around a 4 to 1 ratio of major combat surface ships (carriers, destroyers, cruisers, etc) in favor of the United States. That's not accounting for the merchant fleet which was closer to a 10 to 1 ratio.
asdf9988776655 t1_iy3p259 wrote
No. The attack, even if successful beyond the Japanese wildest dreams, would have only delayed America's offensive across the Pacific.
The only way to win a total war against a major power is to destroy their ability to wage war. Japan did not have the capability to damage America's ability to wage war (since America's resource and industrial base were in the continental US, out of reach of Japan's striking power), so at best the could fight a delaying action.
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>kill/sink all U.S. Carriers (4x) in their berths,
This would have delayed the US by about a year. It would have given Japan a great opportunity to consolidate their holdings in the Pacific and SE Asia and made it a harder slog for America, but it would not have stopped them.
>have the carrier strike group include an invasion force and take Hawaii
The US had 30,000 troops on Hawaii; this means it would take roughly 120,000 troops for the Japanese to launch a successful invasion. This is about the size of the D-day landing in Normandy in 1944; Japan simply did not have the ability to land and supply that size of an invasion across thousands of miles of sea.
>destroy the Fuel Depots on Hawaii
This would have delayed the US by several months as they rebuilt their logistic network, but it wouldn't have damaged America's ability to actually wage war, since their fuel production facilities were all on the mainland, safe from attack.
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