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Gibbons74 t1_ixz4aox wrote

I never realized solar cells were so inefficient. Just imagine the day we reach 95% efficiency.

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seidler2547 t1_ixz4yde wrote

Fact about solar cells you should know:

> The maximum theoretical efficiency calculated is 86.8% for a stack of an infinite number of cells, using the incoming concentrated sunlight radiation. When the incoming radiation comes only from an area of the sky the size of the sun, the efficiency limit drops to 68.7%.

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longreading t1_ixz5txa wrote

Amazing! Keep up the great research NREL!

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TimeSpentWasting OP t1_ixzcmaf wrote

Never knew why, now I have the answer without googling. I'm lazy, so thank you

I have high hopes that humanity will reach that maximum value as tech gets smaller. I wonder how much efficiency is reduced under heavy cloud cover?

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michaelb1 t1_ixzfo3j wrote

With my roof I can’t fit enough modern panels to provide 100% of my electricity requirements.

These would do nicely for me.

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Xenofiler t1_ixzlztr wrote

So even though this comes from US research will it be mass produced in China?

For those who don’t like my cynical comment, here is a link to the history: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/solar_timeline.pdf Which includes major US Dept of Energy and other US funding - although not exclusive US. First invented at Bell Labs. current production 70% China, 20% other Asian countries, 3% US.

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phatelectribe t1_ixzpk67 wrote

Same here but I have the roof space - unfortunately there’s absolutely nonsensical code that sates panels must be placed a certain distance from the roof ridge and also can’t be too close to the edge meaning that I can only use about 30% of my roof space. So If I max out my entire allowable roof space I only get about 70% of my power needs (even with everything in the house being high efficiency such as new appliances and led lighting etc).

Having panels that are twice as efficient (which is what this development means in real terms) would easily solve that issue.

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LoL_is_pepega_BIA t1_ixzr9is wrote

Coal just died even harder.. (provided this new tech is mass producible)

Solar is already dirt cheap at ~20% efficiency..

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michaelb1 t1_ixztq57 wrote

My roof has a bunch of facets that makes it difficult to get a lot of panels up there. Not to mention the rules about panels have to be minimum distance from the edges.

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MysteriousSophon t1_ixzutly wrote

From the article, previous records were 39.2% in 2020 by NREL and 37.9% in 2013 by the Sharp Corporation of Japan. So its safe to say it would take a while to reach the mass consumer market.

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Commisioner_Bush t1_ixzvgjg wrote

Almost all PV is connected to the grid, there's no point in having a battery unless you're totally off the electric grid, in which case obviously you need more infrastructure, like a backup generator, than what you'd need in a regular PV installment.

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Anasterian1408 t1_ixzw3c3 wrote

I wouldn't say nonsensical.... Fire setbacks are if firefighters ever have to get on your roof, that have room to move and walk without tripping over the panels.

What's your actual kwh usage?

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a11en t1_iy022po wrote

Triple junction device.

Let me know when they do this on a single junction…

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a11en t1_iy02dc1 wrote

It will never reach mass market as a triple junction device. These aren’t cost effective to use terrestrially. The reality is we have space to spread out down here, and up in space there’s no elbow room. So triple junctions head to space and we get single junctions - if we’re lucky at 19% efficiency.

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willyolio t1_iy037qr wrote

how efficient would it be with 2 Suns?

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ripped014 t1_iy03rba wrote

after the china news yesterday watch the westoids line up to 100% believe the US department of energy

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Korvanacor t1_iy048w4 wrote

Solar works by using the energy of photons to bump electrons from the valence bands up into the conductive band. These bands are separated by what is called the band gap. If the gap is 2 electron volts (eV) wide and the photon has 3 electron volts, the extra energy is “lost”. Photons with less than 2 eV don’t contribute anything. It’s possible to stack multiple layers with different band gaps to more efficiently capture a wider range of photons but there will still be losses due to interfacial physics that I don’t understand. Each layer adds to the cost of the cell as well

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Sprinkler-of-salt t1_iy05upz wrote

What if we don’t aim for the conductive band of electrons? What if there’s another way to harness the incoming energy?

Or what if there’s a way to “prime” the electrons in the cells such that the valence electrons are already at the conductive band, or somehow less than 2eV away?

If this requires a new atom, why not make one?

What if we forget about atoms altogether, and capture energy at the quarks and gluons?

What if we forget about photons, and harness dark energy instead?

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AnonymousWritings t1_iy07kcm wrote

Only where utilities have idiotic net metering policies right now that let you effectively use your noontime summer production at any time of the year. Resulting in oversupplies if electricity during daylight hours.

Sensible policies that paid people differing amounts depending on what time of day electricity was released to the grid SHOULD be in place and would favor batteries.

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Sprinkler-of-salt t1_iy0ftr3 wrote

Nah, come on now, that’s unrealistic. The outlets have to get it from somewhere.

Maybe they should be fiber optic instead of electric… then we could send the light directly from the sun into devices!

Sun-powered blender would probably make even healthier smoothies!

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General_Ts0_chicken t1_iy0ip9r wrote

NREL is amazing, I had the opportunity to do some work there and was blown away by the place.

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Commisioner_Bush t1_iy0l9ql wrote

The energy grid is fundamentally a battery, it would be asinine to have distributed battery sources storing energy for individual units when literally everybody is connected by a giant battery. The fact that it's not super profitable to store energy isn't a failure of the energy system, but the economic system that the grid must adhere to.

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ThatOtherGuy_CA t1_iy0ubqo wrote

Material costs, eventually the amount of materials you need to add per extra % is more than just building a second panel at the same efficiency. So around 50% in order to get an extra 1% in efficiency, you need a panel with double the cells. So you might as well just build 2 50% efficiency panels rather than 1 51% one.

That’s basically why most panels are stuck around 23% right now, it’s more cost effective to just build 2 panels than to build a panel 1% more efficient.

Basically as technology advances it gets easier to improve the efficiency with less waste, but around 50% is when you can’t really make anything smaller to get those efficiency gains in a similar sized panel.

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ThatOtherGuy_CA t1_iy0uu8y wrote

Warranty doesn’t cover physical damage, the warranties usually just guarantee that the cell will have more than 80% of its rated power generation after 20 years or they will replace it.

Most panels only lose about 1% efficiency a year, so it’s basically a meaningless gesture that looks good, unless you have a genuinely defective cell.

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ThatOtherGuy_CA t1_iy0vbfp wrote

There’s no reason to get rid of them though, they’ll lose some generation capacity over time, but for the vast majority of situations it’s easier to just add an additional panel to make up for those loses than to replace the entire system.

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ThatOtherGuy_CA t1_iy0vnjn wrote

Right now it’s about 10 years without subsidies and 5 years with in most places.

Obviously the exact economics depends on your location and your local price of energy. But my companies been installing systems for commercial and industrial, and the saving off of their power bills straight up pays for the system, and once it is paid of, it’s free energy for the life of the panels.

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Prowler1000 t1_iy0xgsj wrote

I'm not quite sure where you're getting that there's no elbow room in space.. the biggest reason they'd be used up there is because of the launch cost as well as ease of repair.

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Prowler1000 t1_iy0yr48 wrote

Yeah but saying that "there's no elbow room in space" is such a weird way to word it to the point that it becomes misleading. There isn't, as far as I know, a misconception about the amount of room in space but comments like that are how those misconceptions are born.

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25x10e21 t1_iy1081y wrote

I don’t live alone either, and I don’t have an abnormal electricity use. Not sure what tech you’d have over me that would increase your consumption significantly.

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Emu1981 t1_iy13ap7 wrote

>Almost all PV is connected to the grid, there's no point in having a battery

It really depends on your usage patterns. For me it could be a great investment to get batteries if I had PV. The Feed In Tariff is about 20% of the cost of grid supplied KWh which means that having a battery to cover the period between when the sun goes down and the off-peak rates hit could save a decent amount of money. I would have to gather data (power consumption vs time of day) and do the maths to figure out if the cost savings would pay for themselves though and I am not going to bother to do that without having the option to put up PV in the first place.

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tim3k t1_iy13jhl wrote

There are actually so many factors you can't compare your solar panels and electricity consumption with random strangers on the internet.

  • he might live much further away from equator than you or just in an area with a lot of cloudy days

  • he might have electric heating so his consumption is much higher

  • his roof might be much smaller than yours

  • his modules might be older so producing not as much power per square foot/meter

  • might have larger family or simply different lifestyle with more cooking/ night activity

  • he might have an electric car

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DelusionalPianist t1_iy16hnx wrote

It depends on what you install. If you install 13kWp then sure it may take a few years. But if you install like 800Wp then the amortization may be less than 5 years, without selling excess energy or subsidies.

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DaveInDigital t1_iy175bf wrote

are those a viable option? seems they'd be super expensive, limited availability (don't think i've ever seen one in real life, imagine only super wealthy people have them right now?), limited styles, etc.

they seem so neat tho. i just haven't tracked what's going on with that tech since before the pandemic 😅

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chensonm t1_iy1847g wrote

A couple of things to note about these cells are 1 that they are made with indium, and there is not enough indium on earth to meet our needs. 2 they are made with arsenic, which is toxic.

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bobniborg1 t1_iy1apdv wrote

Some companies will move vents and stuff to fit more panels. A sunpower rep (I think it was them) mentioned that as an option instead of a tilt mount if necessary.

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calvin4224 t1_iy1cwpz wrote

Concentrated solar is measured in suns. So if I use a mirror or a lens of 2 m^2 area and direct this light on on a 1m^2 solar panel, people talk of in this case two suns reaching the solar panel. The panel still has a similar efficiency, but double the power output due to more light shining on it. I simplified a bit but thats the idea.

Type "concentrated solar" into an image search engine, it's fascinating!

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ChowAreUs t1_iy1dlz2 wrote

Dawgggggg that is amazing.

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Alexstarfire t1_iy1easc wrote

It really annoys me they couldn't get it to 40%.

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muwenjie t1_iy1gi0k wrote

Typically increasing the number of suns on solar cells increases their efficiency by a small amount, but the tradeoff is that the increased temperature decreases their efficiency - one terrestrial application of these sorts of cells is to sit at the centre of a field of heliostats in a kind of similar concentrating setup to solar thermal power plants, so you only need a small amount of high-efficiency solar cells operating at hundred/thousands of suns to harness a large amount of solar

These cells don't seem to be designed for that though

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HORSELOCKSPACEPIRATE t1_iy1j71r wrote

Residential payoff takes a lot longer unless your roof, weather, and/or local electric regulations are really good, especially now that interest rates went up. Most are paying 4 cents per watt financed at at 3%+.

I got in at .99% and it still wouldn't be obviously worth it in terms of ROI if not for the tax refund. A big cash infusion when the market is low like this could tangibly impract retirement age. But without it, especially with interest rates as they are now I could see people taking longer than the 20-25 year life of their loan to net positive.

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themangastand t1_iy1ol2l wrote

Not exactly true. Because in the summer our days are far far longer. In peak summer it's only is dark for about 5 hours here.

So you make up for it. As long as your allowed to supply back to the grid during that point it should balance out

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Coreus88 t1_iy1ouvo wrote

I thought the highest efficiency was 25%?

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a11en t1_iy1q8ls wrote

Yes. True. The amount of effort to even approach that and the insane amount of energy in purifying the precursors or chemically creating the precursors is insane. Cradle to grave- the use case is limited. And you’re right we’ll likely never even approach the SQ limit. But even if we did it would still be a losing energy proposition.

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theartificialkid t1_iy1vzna wrote

> I'm not quite sure where you're getting that there's no elbow room in space.

Launching stuff is incredibly expensive, so you can’t afford to have a whole room just for elbows on a space station.

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thetaFAANG t1_iy1zcgf wrote

a lot of people dont do that because getting batteries messes up all the financial math for getting solar

Like, most people look at it and walk away completely, another group looks at it and sees just going solar like the proponents and sales people say would work as long as they dont get the batteries, and a smaller group can just afford it with batteries and isnt doing it to save on an electric bill 15 years from now

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callebbb t1_iy29xfo wrote

If the grid has a buyer of last resort. This is where Bitcoin mining comes in handy, and is why it will help revolutionize modern grid economics.

There are tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of terawatt hours of energy, totally stranded. No way to monetize, thus never developed. The development of those assets will now have nigh-instant monetization. All you need is an internet connection.

This means sources of generation can be financed with a much shorter time horizon to cash-flow positive.

This means revolution.

I suggest, before you come at this take in a hostile fashion with pre-conceived notions, dig into Bitcoin a bit. Technically, it’s a marvel. The internet of money.

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Aspie_Astrologer t1_iy2bhjc wrote

u/Korvanacor explained this in great detail for the reason the limit is much lower in solar cells. But it's interesting that the original comment mentioned 95% because that's actually the maximum possible energy that anything at Earth temperature (300 K) could extract from the sun (6000 K) thermodynamically based on the Carnot efficiency (η=1-Tc/Th=1-300/6000=95%).

The reason that the solar cell limit is lower is because solar cells work based on tradeoffs in terms of current and voltage: if you want high voltage then you need a large band gap so that electrons are extra-excited, but then all the frequencies of light below that bandgap will not get absorbed, meaning less electrons/current. Power output is the product of voltage and current.

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BookishByNaturee t1_iy2d0m1 wrote

I use about 1200 kWh a month. I live in a townhome so a very small roof compared to a house.

I had someone do a mock-up and it was 17 panels. Is it possible to get 15,000 kWh (or more, I’d like to go ev) out of 17 panels?

In Texas , south east facing roof (relatively flat)

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zaque_wann t1_iy2et0a wrote

Work in a sector that is one of the contractors involved in putting solar panels as car park roofs, yup they're very expensive due to how they need to have proper support, and water tighting it. Only places I've seeen these being installed in my country at least are universities and similar public institutions.

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TheeMikeman t1_iy2h9p0 wrote

Like im a ten year old please someone

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a11en t1_iy2ijuk wrote

This and many others in this thread are great discussions of solar efficiency and limitations. Thank you for adding to the discussion! One other nasty bit is how the multijunctions are connected. In order to get good efficiency you basically need separate cells one atop the other without direct electrical connection- otherwise you are current limited to the smallest current cell - so they attempt to match the current output- but that’s not always possible (think AM1.5 intensity -v- frequency graph and trying to trap the area under the curve to be equal to the other cell’s conversion). It’s tricky business. It’s much easier just to treat them separately. I need to read the article more. I hope and pray it wasn’t MOCVD growth… that type of growth is so nasty and dangerous and dirty… work in the field. The environmental cost alone of MOCVD would tip the scales against this. Lol. So good for payloads perhaps- but please let’s not attempt to make all our roofs out of this. The environmental disaster alone wouldn’t be worth it. Lol

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Soopah_Fly t1_iy2mwxe wrote

I wonder if 100% efficiency is possible in the future. Imagine having a pair of panels powering your entire house.

Then again, I'd rather we have better batteries.

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kreygmu t1_iy2xuxm wrote

I guess this is good for the tech as a whole but from what I remember in doing my masters thesis on solar cells, these records are produced using really tiny cells and the efficiency figures don't hold up at all as you scale them up.

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JafaKiwi t1_iy2yfp1 wrote

There are many free online estimators where you can enter your exact location and the number of panels or peak power installed (17 panels x 400W = 6.8kW peak power) and it will calculate month by month generation. Some even take into account a typical weather patterns.

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dgsharp t1_iy33kqj wrote

There’s one a couple of blocks away from me. Looks pretty slick. That said, it’s the only one I’ve ever seen and they have 2 Teslas, if that tells you anything.

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anglesideside1 t1_iy36zrs wrote

Efficiency gains are great, but the bigger gains are to be had in manufacturing, installation, and overhead costs. If we’re just talking residential, companies spend a couple thousand in customer acquisition costs per installation. The utility scale stuff is MUCH cheaper per kW, but can still wring out some more savings in siting, permitting, interconnection, and overheads. Panel efficiency gains tend to help more when space is more of a concern. If you can spread out, then much cheaper, less efficient panels are often the better choice.

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callebbb t1_iy3hmi4 wrote

FTX is a perfect example of the folly of man. People took a decentralized money, where no trust in counter parties is necessary, and put it back in the centralized box.

FTX was a scam pretending to be an exchange. Ultimately, the users who withdrew their Bitcoin the moment it was purchased were unharmed.

A failure, no doubt, but not due to Bitcoin. It’s also not the first time this has happened. It will happen repeatedly, until people realize Bitcoin is a bearer asset, and they must take custody of their own money.

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Tigen13 t1_iy3j595 wrote

I am not a firefighter nor do I have experience in the biz. I just don't see why a firefighter would ever want to walk on a roof in a bad fire. Every room has a window and provides better access to a fire without endangering a firefighters life. The roof is one of the most dangerous places to be in a fire because if the fire has weakend the roof the firefighter could be a step away from falling to their death. It's much safer to hang the ladder over the roof and spray from there.

Anyway, dumb code in my opinion which is why it isn't the norm.

−1

callebbb t1_iy3odvj wrote

People want to believe there is something strikingly different about the Federal Reserve Bank (a private entity) and the Dollar. It really is just another shitcoin produced by insiders for nothing. Meanwhile, we have a sound money that is a technological innovation that won't be outdone for awhile, with no insiders, no permission required, no middlemen, no reliance on physical security or power projection, real scarcity, digitally native.

The cost to produce $1 is the same as producing $100 or $1 Billion or $6 Trillion.

Humans have trouble thinking in exponents... I use this example to show how large of a number $1 Trillion is compared to $1 Billion.

A million seconds is about 12 days.
A billion seconds is about 32 years.
A trillion seconds is 32,000 years...

The cost to produce example goes for every FIAT currency that exists globally. They are all digital ledger entries. And it is a permissioned landscape, wherein if you become an enemy of the state (easily these days), you are ostracized. Look at Kanye. Look at Venezuela. Look at Romania. Look at Turkey.

Billions of people NEED something like Bitcoin. The modern financial landscape excludes them, on purpose. For an in-group to exist, there must be an out-group.

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LouSanous t1_iy409ku wrote

Triple jct cells are mind bendingly expensive.

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LouSanous t1_iy41cti wrote

Triple jct cells are insanely expensive. This article is a bit out of date, but the cost difference holds true. When I was working on the solar car for my university back in 2009, the GaAs cells were hundreds of thousands of dollars in total.

https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/nrel-developing-tech-lower-cost-multi-junction-solar-cells

>To give a cost comparison, utility-scale solar projects now cost about $1 a watt for solar power. A gallium arsenide multi-junction solar cell costs up to $300 a watt at this point.

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LouSanous t1_iy4302w wrote

>So you might as well just build 2 50% efficiency panels rather than 1 51% one

The most recent info I was able to find shows it to be like 300:1. Standard utility scale solar panels in the 20% efficiency range are 1/300 the cost of triple junction GaAs.

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LouSanous t1_iy45muh wrote

>solar efficiency and limitations

It's really important to note that this "limitation" isn't much of a limitation.

There is functionally infinite sun. The amount of energy reaching the earth at sea level from the sun every second is well over 100 times the total yearly energy consumption of the entire world.

Modern nuclear uses only 5% of the energy in the fuel. Then, the conversion to electricity is somewhere around 35%. So from the energy contained in the fuel, nuclear is about 1.75% efficient.

Coal plants are around 35% as well.

Combined cycle gas is 55-60%.

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WarOnFlesh t1_iy4coqc wrote

percentage of houses that would benefit from a firefighter on the roof in its lifetime: 0.000001%.

percentage of houses that would benefit from maximizing solar panels: 99.999%

we're holding back billions in energy savings just in case a firefighter needs to get on the roof. a thing that almost never happens.

0

a11en t1_iy4els3 wrote

Combustion is still the most energy efficient.

And Nuclear would be more efficient if they allowed refacing/recycling the rods.

Believe me- the MOCVD toll is huge and does play a factor. We don’t pay attention to cradle to grave, and it’s absurd not to. (Used to be the thing to do- for example for plastics- why ignore it for solar and wind?)

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LouSanous t1_iy4fmek wrote

I'm not sure how much it costs spaceX with their reusable rockets (and given that Musk is in charge, I would bet that he never did achieve the multiple orders of magnitude cheaper costs he promised), but prior to the space shuttle cost per kg into space was $18,500. After the space shuttle, $54,500/kg.

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Billy_Goat_ t1_iy5nakg wrote

How much electricity do you use? I have 6.1 kW of panels and easily make double my electricity consumption per day (~35kWh). The issue is that I do not make power when I need it most, after sunset when cooking/heating/cooling the house.

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