Submitted by candymannequin t3_ydb3qp in explainlikeimfive
kanated t1_its7oz4 wrote
Reply to comment by jawfish2 in Eli5: I don't understand why there seems to be a general consensus that gdp will continue a trend of growth, and why this would be beneficial, considering the cyclical nature of economies and empires rising and falling. Isn't economic downturn on some level unavoidable or even beneficial? by candymannequin
>Classical economics expects growth, forever. Many scientists have complained that this is absurd, and untested, and unprovable, given the laws of thermodynamics and a finite planet. Indeed any observer can see today that our population requirements are bumping up against resource limits and global warming.
It's not absurd at all because economic models never claimed to be able to predict anything at the time scale where the laws of thermodynamics become the upper limit to growth.
We're hitting resource limits and global warming but all of that has solutions. We could do a full turn towards renewable energy sources right now and economies would still grow. They just wouldn't grow as much, so short term greed doesn't allow it.
None of that is preventing growth. Quite the opposite, right now growth rates are a source of the problem, not a consequence.
>Ancient empires grew until they exhausted local resources and then collapsed
This didn't really happen very often. Ancient empires didn't really have the production capacity to exhaust big resource reserves.
The more common case is that ancient empires collapsed because the resources themselves decreased due to outside factors. War, disease, drought, floods, etc...
You can advocate for slow and sustainable growth all you want. No one's going to say it's not a worthy cause. However, a system that works contrary to human nature is bound to fail and therefore pointless. The solution lies in playing along with human nature, and not against it. Research leads to technological advances that make sustainable energy sources cheaper, and therefore better for both growth and sustainability. Vote for that.
Peter_deT t1_itsnooo wrote
Loss of soil quality (topsoil loss, deforestation, erosion, salinity) was a major contributing factor to the decline of Rome, the Abbasids and probably a few others. So ecology matters.
Gordwait t1_itsqmmg wrote
There’s a great website, called Do The Math. He goes into great detail on the continuous GDP growth idea. Unfortunately it’s very bad news, and renewables help but not by much as continuous GDP growth follows a compound interest rate like curve.
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