Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

EscapeRich9091 t1_itnj371 wrote

Solar and Wind will continue to operate until they break down... but the Grid which distributes it relies heavily on human input to route around issues and balance the supply to demand, even with lots of automation around it.

The main issue here is that even states where Solar and Wind dominate during the day, our power mostly is coming from coal and natural gas at night. And those big plants need human operators.

Without those operators, what you'd see is power issues during the day, since Solar and Wind can overwhelm the Grid without dumping excess peak power, or momentarily dip causing instability. As Solar falls off in the evening, brownouts would occur as Wind would be insufficient to supply the entire Grid, and the fossil-fuel plants would not ramp up to match evening demand without human operators, so they only supply a trickle of idle power generation.

Brownouts would progress rapidly to full blackouts within a day or even hours as Grid demand far outstrips the supply, which will cause irregular loading on the remaining availability, tripping fail-safes/grid breakers/etc., and causing the Grid to shut itself down, which can't be restarted easily.

A real life example of partial abandonment is visible in the 2021 Texas power grid failure. Operators weren't able to get into work due to conditions. Supply lines and trains and trucks carrying fossil fuels were disrupted and delayed. Grid instability due to unmatched demand caused the whole thing to fall over (they shut it down before total failure which would require a very slow "black start"). It took about 2 days for this to all unfold as back to back storms hit the state, and well over a week for most of the capacity to be restored.

There are some automatic green-power storage systems which would allow small subsets of the Grid to continue to operate, like large scale batteries, or pumped storage using water and gravity to capture excess Solar. But without Grid operators to selectively shut down sections, the demand would rapidly outstrip those kind of storage systems and we'd see similar end results, maybe lasting a few days more, but hard to guess without examining particular cases.

583

patchinthebox t1_itnkgru wrote

I work at a power plant and this is very accurate.

>Brownouts would progress rapidly to full blackouts within a day or even hours as Grid demand far outstrips the supply,

We'd be in a total blackout situation within the first 24 hours for sure. A few units would trip and the others would quickly be overwhelmed due to no actions happening and a cascading blackout would occur. Once units trip they're not coming back for a long time.

231

bandanagirl95 t1_itonk08 wrote

I wouldn't even bet on it surviving for 12 hours. Too much supply will destroy some units just as easily as too much demand, and the daily shift in power usage can do that either way.

22

calladus t1_itozs5y wrote

What if the load wasn't as bad. Say, almost everyone died?

4

SnooFloofs3486 t1_itp05ai wrote

The system would still fail very quickly. Components are designed to trip off line anytime the power is to far out of balance. And most at the utility level don't automatically come back online.

If you want power when the grid is down, solar and battery is the best bet.

14

Aporkalypse_Sow t1_itp2nku wrote

The amount of stuff that's automatically set to turn on is insane enough of a power draw.

6

Dingo_The_Baker t1_itnqa7p wrote

I actually work in Texas power industry and remember when that storm hit. After it was all over the CEO held a meeting and congratulated everyone for their heroic work. I work a menial desk job, so afterwards I actually pulled my boss aside and asked her what he was talking about.

The dumbed down version that she gave me is that if the grid overloads and starts to fail, the power surges through the lines and burns them up. Imagine thousands of miles of high voltage fuses burning all across the state. As it was places were without power for days or maybe a week. It they hadn't been able to manage the load, it would have been months upon months to rebuild the system.

64

immibis t1_ito2dfn wrote

(I do not work in the power industry but) the lines wouldn't burn up, as they have fuses for the worst-case scenario. In the worst-case scenario, power lines wouldn't burn up but they would still have to drive around and replace all the fuses.

As I understand it, the real problem in a major event is that all the safety systems trip. You get these cascading failures where the computer at each power plant and substation is like "oh fuck, something's really wrong, fuck it, I'm out" and then disconnects whatever section it's responsible for. No actual damage (that's the point of the safety systems), but everything is shut down and disconnected.

E.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_blackout_of_2003#Sequence_of_events - according to this list, you had a few individual things disconnecting themselves and the rest of the grid took up the slack, but then within a few hours it got to a point where there wasn't any slack left and then you get this big cascade where everything that trips due to overloading causes something else to overload, and it just spirals until everything is disconnected. I assume the "heroism" at your company is related to the fact this didn't happen in Texas, so whoever still had power lines could still get power.

And then they have to figure out how to restart the whole grid from zero without tripping all the safety systems again. Did you know that most power plants need electricity to start up, which apparently makes it quite an ordeal? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_start

> To provide a black start, some power stations have small on-site diesel generators, ..., which can be used to start larger generators..., which in turn can be used to start the main power station generators

Fun fact: high voltage fuses have explosives in them to make sure they disconnect properly, as high voltage can jump through air if the gap isn't wide enough.

32

Dingo_The_Baker t1_itogwh4 wrote

>I assume the "heroism" at your company is related to the fact this
>
>didn't happen in Texas, so whoever still had power lines could still get power.

That's what my understanding was. We were very closes to catastrophic failure of the whole system and the techs out in the freezing cold working with the control centers to stop the complete failure and limit the damage. If were going to call anyone "heroic" there it would be the techs in the field. Its not like Texas has anyway to clear or salt the roads for them to get where they needed to go.

At the time it was happening all i knew is that my power was turning off and on every 45 minutes and my boss basically told our entire team to sit home and ride out the storm as our job functions were not needed that week, even if we would have had power to do them.

Also, fuck all the politicians that refuse to upgrade our system.

17

Summersong2262 t1_itolwjj wrote

It's a heavily deregulated grid, after all. Private industry at work.

17

SnooFloofs3486 t1_itp0xd6 wrote

This is the core problem. It's a single interdependent system. With no central planning like we have in other regulated electric systems the Texas failure is expected.

The reason is that generation is HIGHLY capital intensive and the generation needed for the tail risk events is uneconomic to own for anyone, but very economic for the system. It's this way because as long as that marginal generator exists the market prices stay too low. So on is own the generation isn't going to run many hours and will never make enough revenue. But in a systemic look it becomes economic because it's value to the system during tail events is so high and the entire system that benefits pays for the value during all hours.

In competitive deregulated energy markets this is the natural outcome - under building generation for peak or design day loads.

8

685327594 t1_itpjzw6 wrote

The majority of the country is deregulated.

1

SnooFloofs3486 t1_itq8i2h wrote

It doesn't happen overnight. We're seeing this in Texas and California now. It takes time for these markets to mature.

Incidentally they're also more expensive than regulated integrated markets

1

685327594 t1_itqajtp wrote

The issues in Texas and California are more to do with their political posturing than deregulation.

1

SnooFloofs3486 t1_itqrt2n wrote

They're polar opposites politically. It's an inherent part of the nature of deregulated generation. It's just a pretty straight forward math problem to show that there is a financial disincentive to maintain enough generation for low probably events when the generation is viewed in isolation.

This is compounded by the use of gaussian statistical models for nongaussian probability - like forecasting weather extremes. So the extreme events are underestimated.

But most importantly it's also compounded by the cost of capital. In rate of return regulated markets the cost of capital is lower across the board (that's why they provide cheaper service). Cost of capital is much lower for the capital projects targeted at the low probability events. Those are risky investments in deregulated matters and require high returns. So they don't pencil out as viable commercial projects. In regulated markets those facilities are ordered by the regulators and have a guaranteed opportunity to earn a fair return. The fair return on equity being much lower because of the low risk.

The result is that regulated markets with integrated utilities and good regulation tend over time to both lower cost and more reliable.

1

xmaddoggx t1_itpbi0p wrote

Yeah your Texas politicians and by extension the majority of the residents in your state are to blame. Texas is unregulated because they want to be independent from the federal regulations.

3

Dingo_The_Baker t1_ito3pgn wrote

TIL. Like I said I'm a desk monkey trained to do a specific task, and my boss gave me the dumbed down version that I'm probably not recalling 100%.

1

685327594 t1_ito5kdh wrote

They don't have fuses, lol. Computers monitor the load and trip the lines off it it gets above what they are rated for.

−1

immibis t1_ito6lk2 wrote

Are you sure they don't have fuses as well?

3

685327594 t1_ito6uh2 wrote

Yes, 100% sure.

−1

operationfailed t1_itoj0w0 wrote

I’m guessing it varies by region but in the places I’ve worked in Canada the power lines are all controlled with circuit breakers which in turn are controlled by older electro-mechanical relays or newer digital relays. Also a lot of lines have fuses protecting them on top of that

2

dbuzman t1_itpa5rk wrote

Yeah, they are wrong. The pole right by my house has a fuse on it.

3

685327594 t1_itpjm45 wrote

Your pole isn't a high voltage transmission line.

1

fupa16 t1_itokg57 wrote

This is Texas we're talking about remember. They're light-years behind having advanced technology like fuses.

−1

dbuzman t1_itp9rsp wrote

Some lines do have fuses. There is a power pole about 50 feet from my house and it has a fuse. I have been on the front porch when the fuse blew. It was very loud. Just google power pole fuse and look at the pictures.

3

685327594 t1_itpfcs2 wrote

Bro, we're talking about the transmission network which means 100kV+, not your little 13kV distribution feeder.

1

immibis t1_itq94k8 wrote

> I have been on the front porch when the fuse blew. It was very loud.

That's the explosives!

1

Hon3y_Badger t1_itpspar wrote

Yeah I don't think most people realize that the TX grid being shut down in 2021 was the "good alternative;" the other alternative being decidedly worse.

1

DrMooseknuckleX t1_itnk5kv wrote

This is the right answer.

7

685327594 t1_itnkodz wrote

It's honestly still too optimistic. Even making it one hour seems unlikely with no human input.

10

DrMooseknuckleX t1_itnl9kv wrote

Yes, but it includes the human element that is needed. All the others arw like "a gas/wind/nuclear" plant can produce X power for X time, without the human element of diverting and channeling the electricity. Sure the plant can keep producing, but that doesn't mean anything if it just overloads the grid.

6

685327594 t1_itnlrjr wrote

It includes that element, but still underestimates it. People here don't seem to realize just how little this process it automated.

7

PHL1365 t1_itnt03m wrote

I can see where modern plants would have some type of "dead-man switch" or "heartbeat" safety system where it would shut itself down if there were no human responses to periodic prompts.

0

685327594 t1_itnttg7 wrote

There's no "dead man's switch". The issue is simply the ephemeral nature of electricity. For the grid to work everything has to remain in perfect balance. It really doesn't take long for it to drift of course without a guiding hand.

11

Ishidan01 t1_itos37p wrote

>For the grid to work everything has to remain in perfect balance.

As all things should be.

/you may now discuss the effects of only 50 percent, instead of all, of the operators and technicians disappearing without warning

3

PHL1365 t1_itnw0pm wrote

Well, in theory, that balance could be achieved through software/automation. But it would not be considered reliable enough to run without some level of human oversight. Kind of like Tesla's self-driving mode.

2

usmcmech t1_itnz3z6 wrote

In theory yes it could.

However in reality it means phone calls from the grid managers to individual power plant control rooms.

“Hey we need you to take 500MW offline in 30 minutes”

11

Snoo57672 t1_itogq1k wrote

Yep. Happens every morning. Then they call me that night and ask for it right back. We wouldn't even make a shift change before the grid shit

5

J_Zephyr t1_itnnsdl wrote

In America, we would have people charging lightbulbs and tossing them into boxes haphazardly. Cause that's how power work.

−4

woodshores t1_itosesj wrote

I work with wind energy.

Turbines are more complex than a car, and have oils and cooling systems. They have to be inspected on a weekly basis.

If there’s no one supervising them, they would wear out within the first weeks and permanently stop working.

5

immibis t1_ito247y wrote

Both power spikes and brownouts should causes systems to automatically "trip" offline. Power plants and substations have sensors to detect if the voltage, frequency, or current is out of spec - and shut themselves down, or at least disconnect themselves from the grid. Maybe some areas would happen to be in balance with their local power plants for a little while and would stay running.

3

KirkSheffler t1_itol42b wrote

Solar and wind also requires techs to maintain and update regularly, usually with IT people as well to program all of the gear to do what it needs. As an electrician I could confidently say not more than 1-6m with no people at all. There’s usually constant presence or maintenance techs that rotate and keep everything up to date/ running

2

EscapeRich9091 t1_itrgpcx wrote

... I did say until they break down? Either software failure, generator failure, bearing failures, blade failures, whatever it is. They will have an average unmaintained life expectancy probably on the scale of months.

2

KirkSheffler t1_itrhkrb wrote

Yes but they break down a lot faster than people think. They require constant presence like any other electrical sub stations

1

EscapeRich9091 t1_itrk7j5 wrote

I don't know what that unmaintained life is so I didn't address it. I'm sure somewhere they've decommissioned wind/solar/green installs and run some units into the ground to find out, but I haven't investigated to see if there's any published white papers on it.

2

KirkSheffler t1_itolaij wrote

And solar doesn’t drop off in the evening, it’s all stored into batteries and converted into AC for use in homes/ businesses. It’s very rare if none exinsistant to have straight power from solar.

1

EscapeRich9091 t1_itrgiul wrote

I'm talking about Grid scale Solar and residential Net Solar, not residential or commercial Solar + Li-ion. If you're off-grid with your Solar + Li-ion you don't factor into grid loading anyway, unless you have high energy processes, like an industrial facility which uses Solar + Li-ion for office power and grid for like arc furnaces or something really energy hungry.

Solar does drop off hard in the evenings, and it's a big problem they call "The Duck Curve". Go ahead and check out some of the online papers about it.

2

KirkSheffler t1_itrgu8k wrote

I understand that and it’s the same concept/ principles. They have techs who monitor and rotate between the fields keeping them in order/ up and running. The company I work for ‘Faith Technologies’ is huge into green power, and we actually did the largest solar farm in the US. I’m just speaking from personal experience working on them it may be different overseas or in different regions.

1

EscapeRich9091 t1_itrjvs6 wrote

As far as I know, Grid-scale li-ion (or lipo more likely) installs are super rare. A quick google says in 2021-2022 there was only 16gW of grid scale li-ion/lipo storage. Our peak usage is on the order of terawatts.

2

KirkSheffler t1_itrh0ij wrote

And yes there is a huge dip at night but during the day the fields are charging battery banks not using raw solar so at night if you’re not consuming a large amount of electricity it’s fine. And the banks can usually last a while on a single charge

1

Fign t1_itouilw wrote

This is assuming that the demand for power will remain the same. If the scenario of a post apocalyptic city is considered maybe and just maybe the load balancing against renewables scenarios is not that bad.

2

EscapeRich9091 t1_itrit4t wrote

That's correct, since OPs question was just if the power companies abandoned their post, not if 99% of all people died or whatever.

1

lordofmemesoverlords t1_itp1sz6 wrote

I think it's misleading to assume that wind and solar could potentially satisfy demand during the day.

Wind and solar account for respectively 5.3 and 2.7% in the world electricity mix.

We still live in a world powered by coal and gas (sadly).

Therefore, since 90% of the electricity production requires operator, the moment they abandon their post, production decreases very quickly and since solar and wind can't satisfy demand, the grid breaks down and you have a black out (which you can't repair without humans).

https://ourworldindata.org/electricity-mix

2

EscapeRich9091 t1_itrjayd wrote

What I said was:

> The main issue here is that even states where Solar and Wind dominate during the day

... which is specifically states like California in the US, not Global. I can't speak to the global grid because I have no knowledge. In CA 60-80% of daytime energy production can be Solar, so it dominates the grid behavior.

1

usmcmech t1_itnyrkj wrote

The Texas grid came dangerously close to this in 2021.

1

JesusStarbox t1_itokngx wrote

What about hydroelectric?

1

leuk_he t1_itpebk6 wrote

The 100! scenario, where they build a bunker close to a hydroelectric plant.

1

EscapeRich9091 t1_itrfoui wrote

There's always going to be some residual power generation. If there's a small town-scale Grid which is powered exclusively by hydro, there's a good chance it could run for a decently long time, but they need some way to offset a relatively constant energy production into the peak hours.

Hydro has some of the same problems above - it doesn't respond to load demand, and if it's on a hybrid Grid, it'll have the same Solar problem.

It's actually a big problem in our energy industry right now: The Duck Curve. https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/the-duck-curve-the-cute-sounding-energy-problem-well-need-to-fix/

We've deployed so much Solar that the Peak energy generation needed (outside solar) is about 2x the minimum (which happens during midday when the sun is highest). That's a huge swing in non-Solar energy demand.

Even without the Duck Curve problem, your night time demand is going to be about 30% less than your day time demand.

So if your Hydro is scaled to handle Peak demand, you would have to shed all that night time power somewhere, or have an Operator close the sluices which feed the generator turbines a bit, to scale back the energy.

If your Hydro is scaled to handle Off-peak/Night demand, you would end up with Brownouts and possibly Blackouts during the day as Grid demand far out-strips generation and you end up back like Texas in 2021.

Edit: Basically the first person to solve and patent an efficient and inexpensive way at Grid scale to store excess Solar from the day to use at night is going to become the richest person in the world ever.

1

Tamaska-gl t1_itorhy3 wrote

In BC we are something close to 99% hydroelectric power (even the power company is called BC hydro) so we shouldn’t require this switching, does that mean our power grid would run longer without human intervention?

1

SnooFloofs3486 t1_itp1ezd wrote

No. There's still a control room deciding how much water to flow. It possibly could be fully automated, but hydro on my system is still operated via the control room by humans. My guess is that yours is too.

2

EscapeRich9091 t1_itrihqo wrote

If they've fully automated control, it could. But I doubt they have. Grid loading is actually pretty noisy... things like overall weather, temperature, wind gusts, even clouds passing over Solar farms, or large industrial consumers which could be taking in 1-2% of your load... the energy generation operators have to work to match that load as it gains and sheds and typically keep a little (but not too much, because it costs money) extra power generation above what is current needed to respond to micro-spikes, in addition to ramping and up and down with the day.

For example, on your average summer day if it's 30C out, you're going to need a lot more power than on a nice fall day where it's maybe 17C out and nobody is running air conditioning or heating. For a computer to predict that load and match it consistently to the generated power isn't easy.

Maybe they're doing it? But I think it's much, much more common for there to be a control room. There's further aspects to this, because we're glossing over how power grids actually work - there's a bidding process for energy that happens and the energy generators (wind, solar, power plants, hydro, whatever) will ramp up or down their energy contributions to the grid both based on load demand but also on energy pricing. Maybe in BC your utility is not for profit and that's not part of it, but in the US it certainly is a big deal.

In the end, it would run longer even if fully automated, but things like hydro plants are insanely complex. Without regular maintenance and inspection they're not likely to outlast a Wind or Solar farm.

Funny enough, small scale hydro (<10kW) with battery intermediates can be insanely reliable and maintenance free. I've seen reports of off-grid installs basically running for years with no maintenance other than clearing off leaves from the intake every 6mo or so.

1

jericon t1_itp4lsc wrote

In Texas some of the issues were also due to the cost of fuel being more than the electricity it would produce. So some plants chose to go offline.

1

daveatc1234 t1_itpmhkr wrote

Thanks for this awesome explanation. VERY cool. There is a great video about this, and more broadly what would happen if we all just disappeared one day.

1