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boytoy421 t1_jaa3nk4 wrote

Reply to comment by hero_in_time in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local

Sometimes, poker is a good example, assuming you're playing with a 52 card deck and there's 5 people playing and you're 4 flushing and waiting for the river to hit. You'd think that since you're 4 flushing your odds of hitting the flush are 1 in 4 since the river card can be 1 of 4 suits.

But it's actually slightly less because if you're 4 flushing then that means a disproportionate number of your suit were already played.

It doesn't throw it off MUCH (so if you're 4 flushing you should probably chase it, especially if you're pocket suited) but it is LESS than the 1 in 4

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hero_in_time t1_jaa6q46 wrote

That's one example. It makes quite a difference tho, 6%. Also, whether you should call or not would depend on the bet size and the pot size. Getting slightly over 4 to 1 would be break even, not considering implied odds.

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