Submitted by Reason-Local t3_11de5ag in explainlikeimfive
cjo20 t1_ja9x1ev wrote
Reply to comment by johrnjohrn in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local
Again, if it’s guaranteed to be mathematically exactly fair, then by the maths I posted earlier, claiming you have better than 1/6 chance of getting the next one right is mathematically impossible, by definition.
To be clear: you’re defining a situation whereby you are guaranteed to only have a 1/6 chance of getting the next number correct, whichever you pick, and then saying “isn’t it better to stick with the number that came up before?”. Simply, no, it’s not, because of the way you defined the system.
Monimonika18 t1_jadhi4i wrote
Thanks for pointing out that commenter's moving goalposts.
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