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cjo20 t1_ja9trp6 wrote

Reply to comment by johrnjohrn in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local

If you’re trying to construct an actual scenario, a casino wouldn’t let that happen. They’d kick the player out because “they believe them to be an advantaged player”, because they don’t like losing money. And eventually you reach a point where it’s simply more likely that there is a bias somewhere in the system that hasn’t been detected yet.

That means it would be a feature of the system (player / table / dice) rather than of the maths - the maths is based on perfectly controlled probabilities.

Practically, you can’t ensure it’s a 100% fair system, so the simple “each outcome is 1/6” breaks down. If you could guarantee that it was perfectly fair, then what I said earlier stands. In a Real-World situation, the assumptions change significantly - you can’t have perfect knowledge of everyone’s intentions, whether it could be a scam etc.

EDIT: however, most gamblers fallacies aren’t based on the idea “I have actual evidence that the system is rigged”. Things like “5 hasn’t come up on the roulette wheel, it must be overdue” aren’t based on an assumption of bias, they’re based on an assumption of fairness, which says that eventually all numbers will come up equally. However, they don’t have to come up equally before the heat death of the universe.

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johrnjohrn t1_ja9vmsv wrote

I'm not trying to construct an actual scenario. I am constructing a hypothetical scenario that says there is no chance that the system is rigged, and there are a quintillion throws that are all identical, which is entirely possible, but highly improbable. In real life we can say, "that would never happen", but the math says you are incorrect and it 100% could happen. Now, this situation, which is mathematically possible, plays out (hypothetically). Which bet are you going to make after the one quintillionth throw? And are you a fool if you use past information to say the next throw will remain the same as the past quintillion?

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cjo20 t1_ja9x1ev wrote

Again, if it’s guaranteed to be mathematically exactly fair, then by the maths I posted earlier, claiming you have better than 1/6 chance of getting the next one right is mathematically impossible, by definition.

To be clear: you’re defining a situation whereby you are guaranteed to only have a 1/6 chance of getting the next number correct, whichever you pick, and then saying “isn’t it better to stick with the number that came up before?”. Simply, no, it’s not, because of the way you defined the system.

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Monimonika18 t1_jadhi4i wrote

Thanks for pointing out that commenter's moving goalposts.

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