Submitted by Reason-Local t3_11de5ag in explainlikeimfive
PM_ur_Rump t1_ja9m8vr wrote
Reply to comment by KLAPT0N in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local
The odds of two planes crashing while flying in/out the same airport on the same day are far lower than the odds of a single plane crashing while flying in/out of that airport.
But.....
The odds of a plane crashing via that airport are not any lower after a plane has already crashed there, assuming in this hypothetical that plane crashes have specific odds and are not very complex events that are extremely hard to actually put "odds" on.
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