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KLAPT0N t1_ja9j0wz wrote

Reply to comment by PM_ur_Rump in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local

Ok but what are the odds of 2 planes crashing from the same airport on the same day? That would would have a lower possibility right? If u saw a plane crash at the same airport u we’re taking off from hypothetically.

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PM_ur_Rump t1_ja9m8vr wrote

The odds of two planes crashing while flying in/out the same airport on the same day are far lower than the odds of a single plane crashing while flying in/out of that airport.

But.....

The odds of a plane crashing via that airport are not any lower after a plane has already crashed there, assuming in this hypothetical that plane crashes have specific odds and are not very complex events that are extremely hard to actually put "odds" on.

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