Submitted by Reason-Local t3_11de5ag in explainlikeimfive
PM_ur_Rump t1_ja8cqu5 wrote
Reply to comment by SYLOH in ELI5: why does/doesn’t probability increase when done multiple times? by Reason-Local
Yes, but that was not the conversation we were having.
And the grounding of whole fleets based on one event immediately after it has happened without reason to think it was a flaw in the design of the aircraft itself is not exactly common. When a plane overshoots the runway on landing due to pilot error, they don't ground entire fleets of that airframe.
Planes crashing is very complex thing and the "odds" are as well. It's not remotely static like dice.
That part was also part of the conversation I had with the guy in trying to explain the concept of odds to him.
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